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Article Citation - WoS: 27Citation - Scopus: 31Generalized Extreme Shock Models and Their Applications(Taylor & Francis inc, 2020) Bozbulut, Ali Riza; Eryilmaz, SerkanIn the classical extreme shock model, the system fails due to a single catastrophic shock. In this paper, by assuming different arrival patterns of the shocks, two new types of extreme shock models are introduced. In these models, m possible sources may exert shocks on the system. Both models reduce to the classical extreme shock model when m = 1. Assuming phase-type distribution for times between successive shocks, we obtain survival functions and mean time to failure values of the system under new models. Two different optimization problems are also considered to determine the optimal number of sources.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 14Discrete Time Series-Parallel System and Its Optimal Configuration(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2021) Dembinska, Anna; Eryilmaz, SerkanThis paper is concerned with properties of series-parallel systems when the component lifetimes have discrete failure time distribution. For a series-parallel system consisting of a specified number of subsystems, we particularly focus on the number of failed components in each subsystem at the time when the system fails. Each subsystem is assumed to have identical components while different subsystems have different types of components. Assuming all components within the system are independent, we obtain exact distributions of the number of failed components at the time when the system fails. For the special case when the components have phase-type failure time distributions, matrix-based expressions are derived for the quantities under concern. The results are used to obtain optimal configuration of the series-parallel system which is replaced at failure.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 10Computing Reliability Indices of a Wind Power System Via Markov Chain Modelling of Wind Speed(Sage Publications Ltd, 2024) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bulanik, Irem; Devrim, YilserStatistical modelling of wind speed is of great importance in the evaluation of wind farm performance and power production. Various models have been proposed in the literature depending on the corresponding time scale. For hourly observed wind speed data, the dependence among successive wind speed values is inevitable. Such a dependence has been well modelled by Markov chains. In this paper, the use of Markov chains for modelling wind speed data is discussed in the context of the previously proposed likelihood ratio test. The main steps for Markov chain based modelling methodology of wind speed are presented and the limiting distribution of the Markov chain is utilized to compute wind speed probabilities. The computational formulas for reliability indices of a wind farm consisting of a specified number of wind turbines are presented through the limiting distribution of a Markov chain. A case study that is based on real data set is also presented.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 14The Number of Failed Components in Series-Parallel System and Its Application To Optimal Design(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2020) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Ozkurt, Fatma Yerlikaya; Erkan, T. ErmanThe number of components that are failed at the time of system failure is a useful quantity since it gives an idea of how many spares should be available to replace all failed components upon the system failure. In this paper, the number of failed components is considered at subsystem and system levels for the series-parallel system that consists of K subsystems. In particular, the joint behavior of the number of failed components in each subsystem is studied when each subsystem has identical components and different subsystems have different types of components. The results are then used to find the optimal number of components in each subsystem by minimizing an expected cost per unit of time upon the system failure.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 2On Bivariate Compound Sums(Elsevier, 2020) Tank, Fatih; Eryilmaz, SerkanThe study of compound sums have always been very popular in the literature. Many models in insurance and engineering have been represented and solved by compound sums. In this paper, two different bivariate compound sums are proposed and studied. The phase-type distribution is applied to obtain the probability generating function of the bivariate sum. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 1Computing Waiting Time Probabilities Related To (k1< k2< ..., kl< Pattern(Springer, 2023) Chadjiconstantinidis, Stathis; Eryilmaz, SerkanFor a sequence of multi-state trials with l possible outcomes denoted by {1, 2, ..., l}, let E be the event that at least k(1) consecutive is followed by at least k(2) consecutive 2s,..., followed by at least k(l) consecutive ls. Denote by T-r the number of trials for the rth occurrence of the event E in a sequence of multi-state trials. This paper studies the distribution of the waiting time random variable T-r when the sequence consists of independent and identically distributed multi-state trials. In particular, distributional properties of T-r are examined via matrix-geometric distributions.Article A Class of Shock Models for a System That Is Equipped With a Protection Block With an Application to Wind Turbine Reliability(Wiley, 2025) Eryilmaz, SerkanThis paper studies a class of shock models for a system that is equipped with a protection block that has its own failure rate. Under the considered class, the system exposed to shocks at random times is protected by the protection block, and the probability of the shock damaging the system varies depending on whether the protection block operates or not. The system failure criteria is defined based on the pattern of the critical/damaging shocks. Exact expressions for the reliability and mean time to failure of the system are obtained, and detailed computations are presented for the run shock model, which is included in the class. The application of the extreme shock model, which is included in the relevant class, to wind turbine reliability is also discussed.Article Citation - WoS: 9Citation - Scopus: 10Reliability and Performance Evaluation of Weighted K-out-of- N :g System Consisting of Components With Discrete Lifetimes(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2024) Eryilmaz, SerkanFor the k-out-of-n n system consisting of components that have different weights, the system is in a good state if the total weight of working components is at least k . Such a system is known to be weighted k-out-of- n :G system. Although the weighted k-out-of-n n system that has continuously distributed components' lifetimes has been extensively studied, the discrete weighted k-out-of- n :G system has not been considered yet. The present paper fills this gap by modeling and analyzing the weighted k-out-of-n:G n :G system that consists of discretely distributed components' lifetimes. In particular, the behavior of the total capacity/weight of the system with respect to the component failures is evaluated. An optimization problem that is concerned with the determination of optimal number of spare components is also formulated by utilizing the mean lost capacity of the system.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 1Age replacement policies for discrete and continuous heterogeneous k-out-of-n systems(Springer, 2024) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bulanik, IremThis paper studies age replacement policy for the k-out-of-n system that consists of independent but nonidentical components. Both continuously and discretely distributed components' lifetimes are considered. The failed components are replaced by new components and non-failed components are rejuvenated. Because the components are non-identical, the acquisition and rejuvenation costs of the components are chosen differently. The policy and the associated optimization problem are presented for general k and n, and 2-out-of-3 systems are studied in detail. The findings of the present paper extend the results in the literature from parallel systems to k-out-of-n systems.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5The Mean Number of Failed Components in Discrete Time Consecutive K-Out F System and Its Application To Parameter Estimation and Optimal Age-Based Preventive Replacement(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirIt is important in many respects to have information about the number of failed components in the system when or before a system fails. This paper investigates the mean number of failed components at or before the failure time of the linear consecutive k-out-of-n:F system which is a useful structure to model various engineering systems such as transportation and transmission systems. In particular, closed form expressions for the mean number of failed components within the system that have discretely distributed components lifetimes are obtained. The results are used to estimate the unknown parameter of the components' lifetime distribution and to find the optimal replacement cycle that minimizes the expected cost per unit of time under a certain age-based replacement policy.
