Computing Reliability Indices of a Wind Power System Via Markov Chain Modelling of Wind Speed

Industrial Engineering is a field of engineering that develops and applies methods and techniques to design, implement, develop and improve systems comprising of humans, materials, machines, energy and funding. Our department was founded in 1998, and since then, has graduated hundreds of individuals who may compete nationally and internationally into professional life. Accredited by MÜDEK in 2014, our student-centered education continues. In addition to acquiring the knowledge necessary for every Industrial engineer, our students are able to gain professional experience in their desired fields of expertise with a wide array of elective courses, such as E-commerce and ERP, Reliability, Tabulation, or Industrial Engineering Applications in the Energy Sector. With dissertation projects fictionalized on solving real problems at real companies, our students gain experience in the sector, and a wide network of contacts. Our education is supported with ERASMUS programs. With the scientific studies of our competent academic staff published in internationally-renowned magazines, our department ranks with the bests among other universities. IESC, one of the most active student networks at our university, continues to organize extensive, and productive events every year.

Organizational Unit

Energy Systems Engineering

(2009)

The Department of Energy Systems Engineering admitted its first students and started education in the academic year of 2009-2010 under Atılım University School of Engineering. In this Department, all kinds of energy are presented in modules (conventional energy, renewable energy, hydrogen energy, bio-energy, nuclear energy, energy planning and management) from their detection, production and procession; to their transfer and distribution. A need is to arise for a surge of energy systems engineers to ensure energy supply security and solve environmental issues as the most important problems of the fifty years to come. In addition, Energy Systems Engineering is becoming among the most important professions required in our country and worldwide, especially within the framework of the European Union harmonization process, and within the free market economy.

Abstract

Statistical modelling of wind speed is of great importance in the evaluation of wind farm performance and power production. Various models have been proposed in the literature depending on the corresponding time scale. For hourly observed wind speed data, the dependence among successive wind speed values is inevitable. Such a dependence has been well modelled by Markov chains. In this paper, the use of Markov chains for modelling wind speed data is discussed in the context of the previously proposed likelihood ratio test. The main steps for Markov chain based modelling methodology of wind speed are presented and the limiting distribution of the Markov chain is utilized to compute wind speed probabilities. The computational formulas for reliability indices of a wind farm consisting of a specified number of wind turbines are presented through the limiting distribution of a Markov chain. A case study that is based on real data set is also presented.

Description

DEVRIM, YILSER/0000-0001-8430-0702; Eryilmaz, Serkan/0000-0002-2108-1781

ORCID

DEVRIM, YILSER

Eryilmaz, Serkan

Keywords

Expected energy not supplied, loss of load probability, hybrid system, reliability, renewable energy, wind speed

Citation

3

WoS Q

Q3

Scopus Q

Q2

Volume

238

Issue

1

Start Page

71

End Page

78

URI

https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006X221133601
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14411/2365

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WOS
Scopus

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Computing Reliability Indices of a Wind Power System Via Markov Chain Modelling of Wind Speed

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