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Article Citation - WoS: 16Citation - Scopus: 21A Decision Theoretic Framework for Reliability-Based Optimal Wind Turbine Selection(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2022) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Navarro, JorgeThe problem of choosing the optimal wind turbine for a specific site is of special importance in the design process of wind farm. Manifestly, the selection of the optimal wind turbine should depend on a certain criteria. In this paper, optimal wind turbine selection is studied in terms of the capacity factor of wind turbine generator and the Expected Energy not Supplied which is one of the most commonly used reliability indices for power systems. The latter one considers the load profile of the system and is suitable to compare different wind farm compositions while the former one completely ignores the load profile of the system. This paper presents general theoretical results that are helpful to compare performance of wind turbines and wind farms without data collection and further numerical assessment. In particular, the conditions on wind turbine characteristics and availability values of wind turbines are determined to compare wind turbines and wind farms in terms of the capacity factor and Expected Energy not Supplied.Article Citation - WoS: 11Citation - Scopus: 13Compound Markov Negative Binomial Distribution(Elsevier, 2016) Eryilmaz, SerkanLet {Y-i}(i >= 1) be a sequence of {0,1} variables which forms a Markov chain with a given initial probability distribution and one-step transition probability matrix. Define N-n to be the number of trials until the nth success ("1") in {Y-i}(i >= 1). In this paper, we study the distribution of the random variable T = Sigma(Nn)(i=1) X-i, where {X-i}(i >= 1) is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables having a common phase-type distribution. The distribution of T is obtained by means of phase-type distributions. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 50Citation - Scopus: 54Life Behavior of -Shock Models for Uniformly Distributed Interarrival Times(Springer, 2014) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bayramoglu, KonulIn this paper we study the life behavior of -shock models when the shocks occur according to a renewal process whose interarrival distribution is uniform. In particular, we obtain the first two moments of the corresponding lifetime random variables for general interarrival distribution, and survival functions when the interarrival distribution is uniform.Article Citation - WoS: 35Citation - Scopus: 43Reliability Analysis of Multi-State System With Three-State Components and Its Application To Wind Energy(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2018) Eryilmaz, SerkanIn most real life situations, the system's components contribute differently in different performance levels. Such a situation can be modeled by systems with multi-state components having more than one working status, e.g. perfect functioning, and partial working. In this paper, a multi-state system that consists of two types of three-state components is defined and studied. An explicit formula for the probability that the performance of the system is at least a given level is obtained for the most general case when the components are statistically dependent. The model is applied to evaluate the wind power system that consists of two wind plants in different regions. An optimization problem is formulated to find the optimal number of wind turbines that must be installed in the wind plants by minimizing the total cost under specific power production. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 11Joint Distribution of Run Statistics in Partially Exchangeable Processes(Elsevier Science Bv, 2011) Eryilmaz, SerkanLet {X-i}(i >= 1) be an infinite sequence of recurrent partially exchangeable random variables with two possible outcomes as either "1" (success) or "0" (failure). In this paper we obtain the joint distribution of success and failure run statistics in {X-i}(i >= 1). The results can be used to obtain the joint distribution of runs in ordinary Markov chains, exchangeable and independent sequences. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 4Relative Behavior of a Coherent System With Respect To Another Coherent System(Springer, 2015) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Tutuncu, G. YazgiIn this paper, two independent coherent systems with different structures, and different types of components are considered. The remaining lifetime and the remaining number of working components of system I after the failure of the system II when we know that the system II fails before the system I are studied. In particular, signature-based expressions are obtained for the distribution of these conditional random variables. Illustrative examples are provided.Article Citation - WoS: 65Citation - Scopus: 72Reliability and Optimal Replacement Policy for a k-out-of-n< System Subject To Shocks(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2019) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Devrim, YilserConsider a k-out-of-n system which is subject to shocks that occur at random times. Each shock causes failure of random number of components, and hence the system's lifetime corresponds to one of the arrival times of shocks. The reliability and mean time to failure of the system are studied when the times between shocks follow a phase type distribution. The optimal replacement time problem which is concerned with the minimization of the total long-run average cost per unit time is also defined and studied.Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 8A new look at dynamic behavior of binary coherent system from a state-level perspective(Springer, 2014) Eryilmaz, SerkanIn this paper we study lifetime properties of binary coherent systems from a state-level perspective. We define and study a system whose performance levels are determined by its total number of working components and structure. That is, the more working components the better performance level for the system. This enables us to make a more detailed analysis of a binary system. We obtain the distributions of the time that is spent by the system in a specific state subset and a specific state. Our analysis is based on the use of system signature. We also define an optimization problem concerned with the determination of the number of warm standby components.Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 7A Generalized Class of Correlated Run Shock Models(de Gruyter Poland Sp Zoo, 2018) Yalcin, Femin; Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bozbulut, Ali RizaIn this paper, a generalized class of run shock models associated with a bivariate sequence {(X-i, Y-i)}(i >= 1) of correlated random variables is defined and studied. For a system that is subject to shocks of random magnitudes X-1, X-2, ... over time, let the random variables Y-1, Y-2, ... denote times between arrivals of successive shocks. The lifetime of the system under this class is defined through a compound random variable T = Sigma(N)(t=1) Y-t, where N is a stopping time for the sequence {Xi}(i >= 1) and represents the number of shocks that causes failure of the system. Another random variable of interest is the maximum shock size up to N, i.e. M = max {X-i, 1 <= i <= N}Distributions of T and M are investigated when N has a phase-type distribution.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 6On Profust Reliability of Coherent Systems: Signature-Based Expressions(Sage Publications Ltd, 2013) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Rouyendegh, Babak DaneshvarIn this article we study profust reliability of non-repairable coherent systems through the concept of system signature. We obtain explicit expressions for the profust reliability and mean time to fuzzy failure of coherent systems. We compute and present mean time to failure and mean time to fuzzy failure of all coherent systems with three and four components. Finally, we illustrate the results for a well known class of coherent systems called m-consecutive-k-out-of-n:F.
