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Article Citation - WoS: 62Citation - Scopus: 69Estimation in Coherent Reliability Systems Through Copulas(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2011) Eryilmaz, SerkanThe problem of estimating the parameter of a common distribution of components' lifetimes from system's lifetime data is of interest and importance in reliability engineering. The present paper deals with this problem when the common component distribution is exponential with mean it and the lifetimes of components have an exchangeable joint distribution which is constructed by the help of Archimedean copula. In particular we obtain moment estimator of p for Clayton and Ali-Mikhail-Haq copulas. We illustrate the findings of the paper for a special class of coherent systems called consecutive k-within-m-out-of-n:F system. A simulation study is performed to investigate the properties of the moment estimator. The method presented in this paper can be applied to all coherent systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 43Citation - Scopus: 50On the lifetime behavior of a discrete time shock model(Elsevier, 2013) Eryilmaz, SerkanIn this article, we study a shock model in which the shocks occur according to a binomial process, i.e. the interarrival times between successive shocks follow a geometric distribution with mean 1/p. According to the model, the system fails when the time between two consecutive shocks is less than a prespecified level. This is the discrete time version of the so-called delta-shock model which has been previously studied for the continuous case. We obtain the probability mass function and probability generating function of the system's lifetime. We also present an extension of the results to the case where the shock occurrences are dependent in a Markovian fashion. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5The Mean Number of Failed Components in Discrete Time Consecutive K-Out F System and Its Application To Parameter Estimation and Optimal Age-Based Preventive Replacement(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirIt is important in many respects to have information about the number of failed components in the system when or before a system fails. This paper investigates the mean number of failed components at or before the failure time of the linear consecutive k-out-of-n:F system which is a useful structure to model various engineering systems such as transportation and transmission systems. In particular, closed form expressions for the mean number of failed components within the system that have discretely distributed components lifetimes are obtained. The results are used to estimate the unknown parameter of the components' lifetime distribution and to find the optimal replacement cycle that minimizes the expected cost per unit of time under a certain age-based replacement policy.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 14Discrete Time Series-Parallel System and Its Optimal Configuration(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2021) Dembinska, Anna; Eryilmaz, SerkanThis paper is concerned with properties of series-parallel systems when the component lifetimes have discrete failure time distribution. For a series-parallel system consisting of a specified number of subsystems, we particularly focus on the number of failed components in each subsystem at the time when the system fails. Each subsystem is assumed to have identical components while different subsystems have different types of components. Assuming all components within the system are independent, we obtain exact distributions of the number of failed components at the time when the system fails. For the special case when the components have phase-type failure time distributions, matrix-based expressions are derived for the quantities under concern. The results are used to obtain optimal configuration of the series-parallel system which is replaced at failure.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 16Joint Reliability Importance in Coherent Systems With Exchangeable Dependent Components(Ieee-inst Electrical Electronics Engineers inc, 2016) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Oruc, Ozlem Ege; Oger, VolkanIn this paper, a general formula for computing the joint reliability importance of two components is obtained for a binary coherent system that consists of exchangeable dependent components. Using the new formula, the joint reliability importance can be easily calculated if the path sets of the system are known. As a special case, an expression for the joint reliability importance of two components is also obtained for a system consisting of independent and identical components. Illustrative numerical results are presented to compare the joint reliability importance of two components in the bridge system for the two cases when the components are exchangeable dependent and when the components are independent and identical.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5On the Sums of Distributions of Order Statistics From Exchangeable Random Variables(Elsevier Science Bv, 2013) Eryilmaz, SerkanIn this paper, we obtain an expression between the sums of the marginal distributions of the order statistics and the common marginal distribution of an exchangeable random sequence. We also derive an expression between the sums of the joint distribution of two order statistics and the two dimensional joint distribution of an exchangeable random sequence. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 21Citation - Scopus: 29On Reliability Analysis of a Two-Dependent Series System With a Standby Unit(Elsevier Science inc, 2012) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Tank, FatihIn this paper we study a series system with two active components and a single cold standby unit. The two simultaneously working components are assumed to be dependent and this dependence is modeled by a copula function. In particular, we obtain an explicit expression for the mean time to failure of the system in terms of the copula function and marginal lifetime distributions. We also provide illustrative numerical results for different copula functions and marginal lifetime distributions. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 19Citation - Scopus: 21Revisiting Discrete Time Age Replacement Policy for Phase-Type Lifetime Distributions(Elsevier, 2021) Eryilmaz, SerkanFor a system (or unit) whose lifetime is measured by the number cycles, according to the discrete time age replacement policy, it is replaced preventively after n cycles or correctively at failure, whichever oc-curs first. In this paper, discrete time age replacement policy is revisited when the lifetime of the system is modeled by a discrete phase-type distribution. In particular, the necessary conditions for the unique and finite replacement cycle which minimizes the expected cost per unit of time are obtained. The nec-essary conditions are mainly based on the behavior of the hazard rate. The results are illustrated for some special discrete phase-type lifetime distributions. Computational results are also presented for the optimal replacement cycle under specific real life setups. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 32Citation - Scopus: 44The Number of Failed Components in a k-out-of-n< System Consisting of Multiple Types of Components(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2018) Eryilmaz, SerkanThe number of failed components in a failed or operating system is a very useful quantity in terms of replacement and maintenance strategies. These quantities have been studied in several papers for a system consisting of identical components. In this paper, the number of failed components at the time when the system fails and the number of failed components when the system is working are considered for a well-known and widely applicable k-out-of-n structure. The system is assumed to have multiple types of components. That is, the system consists of components having nonidentical failure time distributions. Optimization problems are also formulated to find optimal values of the number of components of each type, and the optimal replacement time.Article Citation - WoS: 30Citation - Scopus: 34Discrete Time Shock Models in a Markovian Environment(Ieee-inst Electrical Electronics Engineers inc, 2016) Eryilmaz, SerkanThis paper deals with two different shock models in a Markovian environment. We study a system from a reliability point of view under these two shock models. According to the first model, the system fails if the cumulative shock magnitude exceeds a critical level, while in the second model the failure occurs when the cumulative effect of the shocks in consecutive periods is above a critical level. The shock occurrences over discrete time periods are assumed to be Markovian. We obtain expressions for the failure time distributions of the system under the two model. Illustrative computational results are presented for the survival probabilities and mean time to failure values of the system.
