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Article Citation - WoS: 13Citation - Scopus: 29DEMAND FORECASTING: A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE HOLT-WINTERS, TREND ANALYSIS AND DECOMPOSITION MODELS(Univ Osijek, Tech Fac, 2017) Tirkes, Guzin; Guray, Cenk; Celebi, Nes'eIn food production industry, forecasting the timing of demands is crucial in planning production scheduling to satisfy customer needs on time. In the literature, several statistical models have been used in demand forecasting in Food and Beverage (F&B) industry and the choice of the most suitable forecasting model remains a central concern. In this context, this article aims to compare the performances between Trend Analysis, Decomposition and Holt-Winters (HW) models for the prediction of a time series formed by a group of jam and sherbet product demands. Data comprised the series of monthly sales from January 2013 to December 2014 obtained from a private company. As performance measures, metric analysis of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used. In this study, the HW and Decomposition models obtained better results regarding the performance metrics.Article Using the Domestic Production Framework To Explain the Endogeneity Bias on Cross-Section Income Elasticities(Presses Fond Nat Sci Polit, 2021) Alpman, Anil; Gardes, FrancoisEstimating unbiased demand elasticities is a challenging task on cross-sectional data due to unobserved heterogeneity. Indeed, the estimation of demand functions on cross-section surveys produces an endogeneity bias on income elasticities caused by the correlation between households' relative income position in the survey and the non-monetary costs of consumption, such as the cost of time allocated to consumption. We generalize the standard household production model, which posits that individuals combine goods with their time to produce commodities such as a lunch or leisure, in order to estimate, at the individual level, the shadow price of time and the full prices of commodities. Our findings show that using full prices instead of market prices can explain more than 70% of the endogeneity bias on cross-section income elasticities. We also find that changes in the shadow price of time affect the demand for commodities almost as much as changes in the prices of market goods.
