DEMAND FORECASTING: A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE HOLT-WINTERS, TREND ANALYSIS AND DECOMPOSITION MODELS

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2017

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Univ Osijek, Tech Fac

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Computer Engineering
(1998)
The Atılım University Department of Computer Engineering was founded in 1998. The department curriculum is prepared in a way that meets the demands for knowledge and skills after graduation, and is subject to periodical reviews and updates in line with international standards. Our Department offers education in many fields of expertise, such as software development, hardware systems, data structures, computer networks, artificial intelligence, machine learning, image processing, natural language processing, object based design, information security, and cloud computing. The education offered by our department is based on practical approaches, with modern laboratories, projects and internship programs. The undergraduate program at our department was accredited in 2014 by the Association of Evaluation and Accreditation of Engineering Programs (MÜDEK) and was granted the label EUR-ACE, valid through Europe. In addition to the undergraduate program, our department offers thesis or non-thesis graduate degree programs (MS).
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Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering
Metalurji ve Malzeme Mühendisliğinin alanı çok geniştir ve temel olarak metaller, seramikler, polimerler ve bu üç malzemenin birlikte oluşturdukları kompozit malzemelerin üretimlerini, şekillendirilmelerini, işlemlerini, karakterizasyonlarını ve kullanımlarındaki davranışlarını kapsar. Yüksek Lisans programımızda amacımız, öğrencilerimizin bu konulardan bir veya birkaçında kapsamlı ve derin bir kuramsal ve uygulamalı bilgi birikimine sahip olmaları ve bilgiye ulaşma, ulaşılan bilgileri değerlendirme, deney tasarlama, deney sonuçlarını analiz etme ve raporlama yeteneklerini kazanmalarıdır. Web sayfamızda yer alan bilgilerden de görülebileceği gibi modern cihaz ve ekipmanla donatılmış güçlü laboratuvar altyapımız çok farklı konularda araştırma yapılmasını olanaklı kılmaktadır. Yüksek Lisans müfredatımızda Malzemelerin İleri Termodinamiği, Malzeme Mühendisliğinde Matematiksel Yöntemler ve Malzeme-Süreç Seçimi ve Tasarım Problemleri isimli üç zorunlu ders yer almaktadır. Tezli Yüksek Lisans programımız bu zorunlu derslerin yanında zorunlu olan Seminer, Yüksek Lisans Tezi ve dört teknik seçmeli dersten, Tezsiz Yüksek Lisans programımız ise zorunlu olan Bitirme Projesi ve 7 teknik seçmeli dersten oluşmaktadır. Teknik seçmeli dersler tez danışmanının onayı dâhilinde çok sayıdaki teknik seçmeli ders arasından seçilmektedir. Programımıza Metalurji ve Malzeme Mühendisliği mezunlarının yanısıra diğer Mühendislik Bölümleri ile Fizik, Kimya vb. bölümlerin mezunları da kabul edilebilmektedir. Bu bölümlerden mezun olan adayların, her birinin akademik ve profesyonel birikimlerine göre belirlenecek bir bilimsel hazırlık programını tamamlamaları gerekmektedir.
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Industrial Engineering
(1998)
Industrial Engineering is a field of engineering that develops and applies methods and techniques to design, implement, develop and improve systems comprising of humans, materials, machines, energy and funding. Our department was founded in 1998, and since then, has graduated hundreds of individuals who may compete nationally and internationally into professional life. Accredited by MÜDEK in 2014, our student-centered education continues. In addition to acquiring the knowledge necessary for every Industrial engineer, our students are able to gain professional experience in their desired fields of expertise with a wide array of elective courses, such as E-commerce and ERP, Reliability, Tabulation, or Industrial Engineering Applications in the Energy Sector. With dissertation projects fictionalized on solving real problems at real companies, our students gain experience in the sector, and a wide network of contacts. Our education is supported with ERASMUS programs. With the scientific studies of our competent academic staff published in internationally-renowned magazines, our department ranks with the bests among other universities. IESC, one of the most active student networks at our university, continues to organize extensive, and productive events every year.

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Abstract

In food production industry, forecasting the timing of demands is crucial in planning production scheduling to satisfy customer needs on time. In the literature, several statistical models have been used in demand forecasting in Food and Beverage (F&B) industry and the choice of the most suitable forecasting model remains a central concern. In this context, this article aims to compare the performances between Trend Analysis, Decomposition and Holt-Winters (HW) models for the prediction of a time series formed by a group of jam and sherbet product demands. Data comprised the series of monthly sales from January 2013 to December 2014 obtained from a private company. As performance measures, metric analysis of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used. In this study, the HW and Decomposition models obtained better results regarding the performance metrics.

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Turkmen, Guzin/0000-0003-0884-4876
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Keywords

decomposition, demand forecasting, food industry, Holt-Winters, time series

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Citation

10

WoS Q

Q4

Scopus Q

Q3

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Volume

24

Issue

Start Page

503

End Page

509

URI

https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20160615204011
 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14411/2894

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