3 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 5Forecasting Turkish Local Elections(Elsevier, 2012) Toros, EmreThe literature on political forecasting is large, although the main focus of this literature is limited to a number of countries. Nevertheless, and despite the major differences between political systems, scientific forecasting work has proved to be broadly possible, with noteworthy extensions to new countries. This article extends the literature further by developing a new forecasting model for local elections in Turkey. The basic motivation of this article is to test the usefulness of political forecasting in the contexts of alternative democratic settings. Turkey, in that sense, seems to be an interesting case for a number of reasons. First, the Turkish Republic has been a multi-party democracy since the mid-1940s. Although it has been interrupted by three military coups, the party and election system in Turkey has brought real alternations in the government starting from very early years of the multi-party system. So, it is plausible to argue that Turkish voters have the tradition of evaluating the performances of political parties, as in any other Western-type democracy. That is to say, the dynamics of evaluations of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to other contemporary democracies, being driven by economic and political forces. The main contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model, which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables across local elections in Turkey by using reliable, public, and macro-level data. In particular, this study offers a new forecasting model which tries to forecast the Justice and Development Party's (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi, AKP) vote share in 81 cities. (C) 2012 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 10Citation - Scopus: 12Forecasting Elections in Turkey(Elsevier, 2011) Toros, EmreThis paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors. " ... why did AKP win? There cannot be a scientific and sociological explanation of this." Ozdemir Ince, 17 August 2007, Hurriyet, emphasis added. (C) 2011 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1How Do Real and Monetary Integrations Affect Inflation Dynamics?(Elsevier, 2023) Saygili, HulyaThis paper examines the significance of real and monetary integrations for the inflationary dynamics of an emerging country, Turkey. The analysis accounts for 2-digit items of CPI inflation, which can be broadly categorized as tradable versus non-tradable and goods versus services. We find that a fall in the inflation gap between partner countries is mainly related to real integration whereas the co-movement of inflation is prominently driven by monetary policy co-movements. The product-type analysis shows that inflation gap in tradable items between trade partners shrinks and becomes more correlated with the (de)convergence and co-movement of real integration.
