Forecasting elections in Turkey

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Date

2011

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Publisher

Elsevier

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Department of Public Administration and Political Science
The graduate programs offered by our department includes a master program and a PhD program in Political Science and Public Administration. Master program includes thesis and non-thesis options. The overall aim of our graduate programs is to prepare students for specialization in Political Science and Public Administration. The curricula of our programs are carefully designed to achieve this aim. All programs offered by our department are supported by our highly qualified departmental faculty members. Our master programs provide students with both practical skills and sound theoretical knowledge. They also provide students with good understanding of Turkish and World politics and administration. While the non-thesis studens will conduct a project, the thesis students will conduct a larger research and write a thesis. Our PhD program prepares students for academic careers in political science and public administration. The program is designed to provide students with substantive theoretical knowledge and research skills. It helps students to develop analytical skills and critical thinking. It also helps students to specialize in at least one sub-field of political science and public administration and to produce not only a PhD thesis but also scholarly articles and books.

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Abstract

This paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors. " ... why did AKP win? There cannot be a scientific and sociological explanation of this." Ozdemir Ince, 17 August 2007, Hurriyet, emphasis added. (C) 2011 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Description

Toros, Emre/0000-0002-8057-1510; Toros, Emre/0000-0002-7550-3185

Keywords

Elections, Forecasting, Turkey, Turkish political parties

Turkish CoHE Thesis Center URL

Citation

10

WoS Q

Q1

Scopus Q

Source

Volume

27

Issue

4

Start Page

1248

End Page

1258

URI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.01.002
 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14411/1339

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