Forecasting Elections in Turkey

dc.authorid Toros, Emre/0000-0002-8057-1510
dc.authorid Toros, Emre/0000-0002-7550-3185
dc.authorscopusid 26030668300
dc.authorwosid toros, emre/G-9442-2011
dc.authorwosid Toros, Emre/H-3346-2019
dc.authorwosid Toros, Emre/AAF-6265-2019
dc.contributor.author Toros, Emre
dc.contributor.other Department of Public Administration and Political Science
dc.date.accessioned 2024-07-05T15:10:35Z
dc.date.available 2024-07-05T15:10:35Z
dc.date.issued 2011
dc.department Atılım University en_US
dc.department-temp Atilim Univ, Ankara, Turkey en_US
dc.description Toros, Emre/0000-0002-8057-1510; Toros, Emre/0000-0002-7550-3185 en_US
dc.description.abstract This paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors. " ... why did AKP win? There cannot be a scientific and sociological explanation of this." Ozdemir Ince, 17 August 2007, Hurriyet, emphasis added. (C) 2011 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. en_US
dc.identifier.citationcount 10
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.01.002
dc.identifier.endpage 1258 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0169-2070
dc.identifier.issn 1872-8200
dc.identifier.issue 4 en_US
dc.identifier.scopus 2-s2.0-80052153961
dc.identifier.startpage 1248 en_US
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.01.002
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14411/1339
dc.identifier.volume 27 en_US
dc.identifier.wos WOS:000295429400024
dc.identifier.wosquality Q1
dc.institutionauthor Toros, Emre
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Elsevier en_US
dc.relation.publicationcategory Makale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı en_US
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess en_US
dc.scopus.citedbyCount 11
dc.subject Elections en_US
dc.subject Forecasting en_US
dc.subject Turkey en_US
dc.subject Turkish political parties en_US
dc.title Forecasting Elections in Turkey en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.wos.citedbyCount 10
dspace.entity.type Publication
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