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Article Citation - WoS: 53Citation - Scopus: 60On the Mean Residual Life of a k-out-of-n< System With a Single Cold Standby Component(Elsevier Science Bv, 2012) Eryilmaz, SerkanThe concept of mean residual life is one of the most important characteristics that has been widely used in dynamic reliability analysis. It is a useful tool for investigating ageing properties of technical systems. In this paper, we define and study three different mean residual life functions for k-out-of-n:G system with a single cold standby component. In particular, we obtain explicit expressions for the corresponding functions using distributions of order statistics. We also provide some stochastic ordering results associated with the lifetime of a system. We illustrate the results for various lifetime distributions. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - Scopus: 1The Distribution of Wind Power from a Dispersed Array of Wind Turbine Generators and Its Reliability Based Applications(Elsevier, 2026) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, Cihangir; Devrim, YilserIn this paper, the probability distribution of wind power from a dispersed array of wind turbine sites is studied considering forced outage rates of wind turbines. The wind speeds at distinct sites are assumed to be dependent and the dependence is modeled by copulas. In particular, the probability distribution of the aggregate power from two sites is exactly derived. The probability distribution of the aggregate power is also derived under the particular case when site 1 consists of n1 identical wind turbines of type 1 and site 2 consists of n2 identical wind turbines of type 2. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the theoretical findings for a chosen copula function.Article Citation - WoS: 17Citation - Scopus: 25On the Theoretical Distribution of the Wind Farm Power When There Is a Correlation Between Wind Speed and Wind Turbine Availability(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2020) Kan, Cihangir; Devrim, Yilser; Eryilmaz, SerkanIt is important to elicit information about the potential power output of a wind turbine and a wind farm consisting of specified number of wind turbines before installation of the turbines. Such information can be used to estimate the potential power output of the wind farm which will be built in a specific region. The output power of a wind turbine is affected by two factors: wind speed and turbine availability. As shown in the literature, the correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability has an impact on the output of a wind farm. Thus, the probability distribution of the power produced by the farm depending on the wind speed distribution and turbine availability can be effectively used for planning and risk management. In this paper, the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power is derived by considering the dependence between turbine availability and the wind speed. The theoretical results are illustrated for real wind turbine reliability and wind speed data.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 12On the Mean Residual Lifetime of Consecutive K-Out Systems(Springer, 2012) Salehi, E. T.; Asadi, M.; Eryilmaz, S.In recent years, consecutive systems were shown to have many applications in various branches of science such as engineering. This paper is a study on the stochastic and aging properties of residual lifetime of consecutive k-out-of-n systems under the condition that n-r+1, ra parts per thousand currency signn, components of the system are working at time t. We consider the linear and circular consecutive k-out-of-n systems and propose a mean residual lifetime (MRL) for such systems. Several properties of the proposed MRL is investigated. The mixture representation of the MRL of the systems with respect to the vector of signatures of the system is also studied.Article Citation - WoS: 12Citation - Scopus: 14On Signatures of Series and Parallel Systems Consisting of Modules With Arbitrary Structures(Taylor & Francis inc, 2014) Eryilmaz, SerkanThe signature of a system is a useful concept not only in the analysis of binary coherent systems but also in network reliability. Computation of system signature is a well-defined combinatorial problem. This article is concerned with the computation of signature vectors of series and parallel systems consisting of modules. We derive simple formulas for the signature and minimal signature of series and parallel systems based on signatures and minimal signatures of modules with given structures. We present computational results to illustrate the findings.Article Citation - WoS: 9Citation - Scopus: 12The Behavior of Warm Standby Components With Respect To a Coherent System(Elsevier Science Bv, 2011) Eryilmaz, SerkanThis paper is concerned with a coherent system consisting of active components and equipped with warm standby components. In particular, we study the random quantity which denotes the number of surviving warm standby components at the time of system failure. We represent the distribution of the corresponding random variable in terms of system signature and discuss its potential utilization with a certain optimization problem. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 27Citation - Scopus: 30The Distributions of Sum, Minima and Maxima of Generalized Geometric Random Variables(Springer, 2015) Tank, Fatih; Eryilmaz, SerkanGeometric distribution of order as one of the generalization of well known geometric distribution is the distribution of the number of trials until the first consecutive successes in Bernoulli trials with success probability . In this paper, it is shown that this generalized distribution can be represented as a discrete phase-type distribution. Using this representation along with closure properties of phase-type distributions, the distributions of sum, minima and maxima of two independent random variables having geometric distribution of order are obtained. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the computational details.Article Citation - WoS: 76Citation - Scopus: 77Reliability and Optimal Replacement Policy for an Extreme Shock Model With a Change Point(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2019) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirAn extreme shock model when there is a change in the distribution of the magnitudes of shocks is defined and studied. Such a model is useful in practice since a sudden change in environmental conditions may cause a larger shock. In particular, the reliability and mean time to failure of the system is obtained by assuming that the times between arrivals of shocks follow phase-type distribution. The optimal replacement policy that is based on a control limit is also proposed. The results are illustrated when the number of shocks until the change point follows geometric distribution.Article Citation - WoS: 28Citation - Scopus: 33System Reliability Under Δ-Shock Model(Taylor & Francis inc, 2018) Tuncel, Altan; Eryilmaz, Serkandelta-shock model is one of the widely studied shock models in reliability. Under this model, the system fails when the time between two consecutive shocks falls below a fixed threshold . In this paper, the survival function and the mean time to failure of the system are obtained when the times between successive shocks follow proportional hazard rate model.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 15Dynamic Modeling of General Three-State k-out-of-n< Systems: Permanent-Based Computational Results(Elsevier Science Bv, 2014) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Xie, MinThis paper is concerned with dynamic reliability analysis of three-state k-out-of-n:G systems. It is assumed that the components and the systems can be in three states: perfect functioning, partial performance and complete failure. Using the concept of permanent, we study marginal and joint survival functions for the lifetime of two different three-state k-out-of-n:G systems that consist of independent and nonidentical components. Illustrative examples are also provided for the components which follow the Markov degradation process. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
