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Article Citation - WoS: 11Testing the Hysteresis Effect in the Us State-Level Unemployment Series(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2020) Omay, Tolga; Ozcan, Burcu; Shahbaz, MuhammedThis paper re-examines the stochastic time series behaviour of the monthly unemployment rate in 50 states of the United States (US) for the period 1976-2017 using a number of state-of-the-art unit root tests. The new developments incorporate structural break, nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional correlation within panel-data estimation including the use of a sequential panel selection method. While not previously considered, sequential panel selection enabled us to determine and separate the stationary and nonstationary series in the sample. The empirical findings are in support of the stationarity of unemployment rate in 47 states. The findings confirm a natural rate hypothesis for the labour markets in the most US states, indicating that labour market shocks have solely temporary effects on state-level unemployment. This empirical study provides significant state-specific policy implications.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 18Online Purchase Behaviour Among Professionals: a Socio-Demographic Perspective for Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2014) Akman, Ibrahim; Rehan, MohammadThis study reports the findings of a survey concerning the impact of professionals' selected socio-demographic factors with regard to their online purchasing behaviour in Turkey, since this consumer group plays an important role in adopting new technologies in societies. The survey has been conducted using a 'face-to-face interview' approach during an IT event. To keep in line with the available literature, gender, age, education level, income and daily Internet usage, constitute the socio-demographic variants for this study. Five hypotheses were constructed to investigate the nature of the relationship between the socio-demographic factors and the usage of online purchasing. The chi-square method was selected to test the hypotheses. According to the test results, age, income and education level have a significant impact on the online purchasing behaviour of professionals.Article Citation - WoS: 34Citation - Scopus: 43Brain Drain From Turkey: an Investigation of Students' Return Intentions(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2008) Gungor, Nil Demet; Tansel, AysitThe emigration of skilled individuals from Turkey attracted greater media attention and the interest of policymakers in Turkey, particularly after the experience of recurrent economic crises that have led to an increase in unemployment among the highly educated young. This study estimates a model of return intentions using a data set compiled from an Internet survey of Turkish students residing abroad. The findings of this study indicate that, as expected, higher salaries offered in the host country and lifestyle preferences, including a more organized environment in the host country, increase the probability of student nonreturn. However, the analysis also points to the importance of prior return intentions and the role of the family in the decision to return to Turkey or stay overseas. It is also found that the compulsory service requirement attached to government scholarships increases the probability of student return. Turkish student association membership also increases return intentions. Longer stay durations, on the other hand, decrease the probability of return. These findings have important policy implications.Article Citation - WoS: 10Citation - Scopus: 10Comparison of Optimization Algorithms for Selecting the Fractional Frequency in Fourier Form Unit Root Tests(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2021) Omay, Tolga; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Hussain Shahzad, Syed JawadWe compare the performance of unit root tests which include flexible Fourier trends in their testing processes. The algorithms considered are those of Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb and Shanno (BFGS), Berndt, Hall, Hall and Hausman (BHHH), Simplex, Genetic and grid search (GS). The simulation results indicate that derivative-free methods, such as Genetic and Simplex, have advantages over hill-climbing methods, such as BFGS and BHHH in providing accurate fractional frequencies for fractional frequency flexible Fourier form (FFFFF) unit root test. When the parameters are estimated under the alternative hypothesis of the FFFFF type of unit root test, the grid search and derivative-free methods provide unbiased and efficient estimations. We also provide the asymptotic distribution of the FFFFF unit root test. We extend the FFFFF unit root test to a panel version in order to increase the power of the test. Finally, the empirical analyses of healthcare convergence show that derivative-free methods, hill climbing and extensive grid searches can be used interchangeably. However, for big data and accurate estimation of the frequency parameters, the Simplex methodology using the bootstrap process is preferred.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 3Predictors and Mediators of Pressure/Tension in University Students' Distance Learning During the Covid-19 Pandemic: a Self-Determination Theory Perspective(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Manuoglu, Elif; Gungor, ElisDue to the global restrictions to decrease the risk of infection in classrooms, the transition from face-to-face education to distance learning was a necessity during the Covid-19 pandemic. Grounded in Self-Determination Theory, the present research sought to explore how the pandemic affects university students during distance learning. Specifically, the study examined the predictors of pressure/tension and attempted to identify the unique and mediator roles of correlates of pressure/tension of university students. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 432 university students from different departments of different universities in Turkey. The online survey was administered between the last week of October and the second week of December 2020. Our findings revealed that there is a positive association between pressure/tension and Covid-specific worry. Also, there is a negative association between learning climate and pressure/tension and between perceived competence and pressure/tension. Further, learning climate mediated the link between Covid-specific worry and pressure/tension. The data of the present study depends on students' academic (learning climate) and also non-academic (Covid worry) experiences during the pandemic. Methodological limitations concerning the research design are discussed.Article Citation - WoS: 19Citation - Scopus: 30The Role of Macroeconomic Instability in Public and Private Capital Accumulation and Growth: the Case of Turkey 1963-1999(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2005) Ismihan, M; Metin-Ozcan, K; Tansel, AThis study investigates the empirical relationship(s) between macroeconomic instability, public and private capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963-1999. Time series econometric techniques. such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, are used. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing macroeconomic instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth. Furthermore, the Turkish experience indicates that chronic macroeconomic instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment, especially to its infrastructural component, and shatters, or even reverses. the cornplementarity between public and private investment in the long run.Article Citation - WoS: 6Citation - Scopus: 4Does Real Uk Gdp Have a Unit Root? Evidence From a Multi-Century Perspective(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2020) Canarella, Giorgio; Gupta, Rangan; Millera, Stephen M.; Omay, TolgaWe employ linear and nonlinear unit-root tests to examine the stationarity of five multi-century historical U.K. series of real output compiled by the Bank of England. Three series span 1270 to 2016 and two series span 1700 to 2016. These datasets represent the longest span of historical real output data available and, thus, provide the environment for which unit-root tests are most powerful. A key feature of our test is its simultaneous allowance for two types of nonlinearity: time-dependent (structural breaks) nonlinearity and state-dependent (asymmetric adjustment) nonlinearity. The key finding of the test, contrary to what other more popular nonlinear unit-root tests suggest, provides strong evidence that the main structure of the five series is a stationary process characterized by an asymmetric nonlinear adjustment and a permanent break affecting both the intercept and the trend. A major policy implication of this finding is fiscal and/or monetary stabilization policies have only temporary effects on the output levels of the United Kingdom.Article Citation - WoS: 35Citation - Scopus: 36Structural Break, Nonlinearity and Asymmetry: a Re-Examination of Ppp Proposition(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2018) Omay, Tolga; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Hasanov, MubarizIn this study, we examine the validity of the PPP proposition for 28 European countries. For this purpose, we propose a new unit root test procedure that allows for both gradual structural breaks and asymmetric nonlinear adjustment towards the equilibrium level. Small-sample properties of the new tests are examined through Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation results suggest that the new tests have satisfactory size and power properties. We then apply these new tests along with other unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of real exchange rate series of the sample countries. Our tests reject the null of unit root in more cases when compared to alternative tests. Overall, we find that the PPP proposition holds in majority of the European countries examined in this article.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 3The Effects of Japanese Economic Performance on Indonesia(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2006) Berument, Hakan; Ceylan, Nildag Basak; Vural, BengisuThis paper assesses how Japanese economic performance affects the Indonesian economy for the 1988 to 2004 period. The empirical evidence provided here suggests that Japanese growth appreciates the local currency in real terms, decreases the inflation and increases growth. As a side issue, we also documented that real exchange rate depreciation accelerates inflation and decreases growth in Indonesia.Article Can Governments Sleep More Soundly When Holding International Reserves? a Banking and Financial Vulnerabilities Perspective*(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2024) Sallenave, Audrey; Allegret, Jean-Pierre; Omay, TolgaWe use a sample of 40 developing and emerging countries over the period 1995-2015 to assess the effectiveness of international reserve holding as a crisis mitigator. We test the relevance of the reserve accumulation decreasing returns assumption by estimating the most recent version of the PSTR model. We find that increasing stocks of international reserves allows domestic authorities to mitigate the negative impacts of financial and banking vulnerabilities on GDP growth rates leading to reject the decreasing returns assumption. This evidence is robust to sensitivity checks.
