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Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 10Computing Reliability Indices of a Wind Power System Via Markov Chain Modelling of Wind Speed(Sage Publications Ltd, 2024) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bulanik, Irem; Devrim, YilserStatistical modelling of wind speed is of great importance in the evaluation of wind farm performance and power production. Various models have been proposed in the literature depending on the corresponding time scale. For hourly observed wind speed data, the dependence among successive wind speed values is inevitable. Such a dependence has been well modelled by Markov chains. In this paper, the use of Markov chains for modelling wind speed data is discussed in the context of the previously proposed likelihood ratio test. The main steps for Markov chain based modelling methodology of wind speed are presented and the limiting distribution of the Markov chain is utilized to compute wind speed probabilities. The computational formulas for reliability indices of a wind farm consisting of a specified number of wind turbines are presented through the limiting distribution of a Markov chain. A case study that is based on real data set is also presented.Article Citation - WoS: 15Citation - Scopus: 20A Decision Theoretic Framework for Reliability-Based Optimal Wind Turbine Selection(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2022) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Navarro, JorgeThe problem of choosing the optimal wind turbine for a specific site is of special importance in the design process of wind farm. Manifestly, the selection of the optimal wind turbine should depend on a certain criteria. In this paper, optimal wind turbine selection is studied in terms of the capacity factor of wind turbine generator and the Expected Energy not Supplied which is one of the most commonly used reliability indices for power systems. The latter one considers the load profile of the system and is suitable to compare different wind farm compositions while the former one completely ignores the load profile of the system. This paper presents general theoretical results that are helpful to compare performance of wind turbines and wind farms without data collection and further numerical assessment. In particular, the conditions on wind turbine characteristics and availability values of wind turbines are determined to compare wind turbines and wind farms in terms of the capacity factor and Expected Energy not Supplied.Article Citation - WoS: 32Citation - Scopus: 41Reliability Based Modeling of Hybrid Solar/Wind Power System for Long Term Performance Assessment(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2021) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bulanik, Irem; Devrim, YilserThis paper is concerned with reliability based long-term performance assessment of hybrid solar/wind power system. In particular, an analytical expression is obtained for the theoretical distribution of the power output of the hybrid system by taking into account the reliability values of renewable energy components. An expression for the expected energy not supplied (EENS) is also derived and used to compute the energy index of reliability (EIR) that is directly related to EENS. Because the derived expressions involve reliability values which are related to mechanical states of the renewable energy components, the results enable us to evaluate properly the performance of the hybrid system. A numerical example is included to illustrate the results.
