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Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 10Computing Reliability Indices of a Wind Power System Via Markov Chain Modelling of Wind Speed(Sage Publications Ltd, 2024) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bulanik, Irem; Devrim, YilserStatistical modelling of wind speed is of great importance in the evaluation of wind farm performance and power production. Various models have been proposed in the literature depending on the corresponding time scale. For hourly observed wind speed data, the dependence among successive wind speed values is inevitable. Such a dependence has been well modelled by Markov chains. In this paper, the use of Markov chains for modelling wind speed data is discussed in the context of the previously proposed likelihood ratio test. The main steps for Markov chain based modelling methodology of wind speed are presented and the limiting distribution of the Markov chain is utilized to compute wind speed probabilities. The computational formulas for reliability indices of a wind farm consisting of a specified number of wind turbines are presented through the limiting distribution of a Markov chain. A case study that is based on real data set is also presented.Article Citation - WoS: 36Citation - Scopus: 42Modeling and Analysis of Weighted-k-out-of-n< G System Consisting of Two Different Types of Components(Sage Publications Ltd, 2014) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Sarikaya, KadirThis article is concerned with the reliability analysis of a weighted-k-out-of-n: G system consisting of two types of components. The system is assumed to have n components which are classified into two groups with respect to their weight and reliability, and it is assumed to operate if the total weight of all working components exceeds a prespecified threshold k. The reliability properties of such a system are studied. The optimal values of the number of components in each group are also determined under a minimum required reliability by minimizing the total acquisition cost.Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 9Reliability of the Two-Unit Priority Standby System Revisited(Sage Publications Ltd, 2022) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Finkelstein, MaximThis paper deals with reliability assessment of the repairable two-unit cold standby system when the first, main unit has the better performance level than the second one. Therefore, after its repair, the main unit is always switched into operation. The new Laplace transform representation for the system's lifetime is obtained for arbitrary operation and repair time distributions of the units. For some particular cases, the Laplace transform of the system is shown to be rational, which enables the use of the matrix-exponential distributions for obtaining relevant reliability indices. The discrete setup of the model is also considered through the corresponding matrix-geometric distributions, which are the discrete analogs of the matrix-exponential distributions.Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 9Reliability-Based Evaluation of Hybrid Wind-Solar Energy System(Sage Publications Ltd, 2021) Devrim, Yilser; Eryilmaz, SerkanIn this article, a hybrid system that consists of a specified number of wind turbines and solar modules is considered. In particular, the system is modeled using weightedk-out-of-nsystem which is also known as a threshold system in reliability literature. The system under concern consists ofn1identical wind turbines andn2identical solar modules, and each turbine and module can be in one of two states as working or failed. The probability that the entire hybrid system withn=n1+n2components produces power at minimum levelkis computed and evaluated. The importance of single-wind turbine and solar module is also calculated to measure which renewable energy component is more critical and important. Extensive numerical results that are based on real data set are presented to illustrate the model.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 6On Profust Reliability of Coherent Systems: Signature-Based Expressions(Sage Publications Ltd, 2013) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Rouyendegh, Babak DaneshvarIn this article we study profust reliability of non-repairable coherent systems through the concept of system signature. We obtain explicit expressions for the profust reliability and mean time to fuzzy failure of coherent systems. We compute and present mean time to failure and mean time to fuzzy failure of all coherent systems with three and four components. Finally, we illustrate the results for a well known class of coherent systems called m-consecutive-k-out-of-n:F.Article Citation - WoS: 10Citation - Scopus: 11Consecutive k-out-of-n< Lines With a Change Point(Sage Publications Ltd, 2016) Eryilmaz, SerkanReliability analysis of consecutive k-out-of-n systems and their generalizations has attracted a great deal of attention in the literature. Such systems have been used to model telecommunication networks, oil pipeline systems, vacuum systems in accelerators, spacecraft relay stations, etc. In this paper, nonrecursive closed form equations are presented for the reliability functions and mean time to failure values of consecutive k-out-of-n systems consisting of two types of nonidentical components. The results are illustrated for reliability evaluation of oil pipeline system.Article Citation - WoS: 22Citation - Scopus: 24Reliability Analysis of Weighted-K System Consisting of Three-State Components(Sage Publications Ltd, 2019) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bozbulut, Ali RizaThe reliability of a weighted-k-out-of-n system that consists of three-state components is studied. The system is assumed to comprise n three-state components, namely, perfect functioning, partial working, and complete failure and functions if the total weight of all the working components is at least k. Reliability expressions are presented when the times spent by components in perfect functioning and partial working states are dependent with a given joint distribution. Sufficient conditions are also provided to compare the expected total weights of two systems.Article Citation - WoS: 43Citation - Scopus: 44Reliability Assessment of System Under a Generalized Cumulative Shock Model(Sage Publications Ltd, 2020) Gong, Min; Eryilmaz, Serkan; Xie, MinReliability assessment of system suffering from random shocks is attracting a great deal of attention in recent years. Excluding internal factors such as aging and wear-out, external shocks which lead to sudden changes in the system operation environment are also important causes of system failure. Therefore, efficiently modeling the reliability of such system is an important applied problem. A variety of shock models are developed to model the inter-arrival time between shocks and magnitude of shocks. In a cumulative shock model, the system fails when the cumulative magnitude of damage caused by shocks exceed a threshold. Nevertheless, in the existing literatures, only the magnitude is taken into consideration, while the source of shocks is usually neglected. Using the same distribution to model the magnitude of shocks from different sources is too critical in real practice. To this end, considering a system subject to random shocks from various sources with different probabilities, we develop a generalized cumulative shock model in this article. We use phase-type distribution to model the variables, which is highly versatile to be used for modeling quantitative features of random phenomenon. We will discuss the reliability characteristics of such system in some detail and give some clear expressions under the one-dimensional case. Numerical example for illustration is also provided along with a summary.
