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Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 10Computing Reliability Indices of a Wind Power System Via Markov Chain Modelling of Wind Speed(Sage Publications Ltd, 2024) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bulanik, Irem; Devrim, YilserStatistical modelling of wind speed is of great importance in the evaluation of wind farm performance and power production. Various models have been proposed in the literature depending on the corresponding time scale. For hourly observed wind speed data, the dependence among successive wind speed values is inevitable. Such a dependence has been well modelled by Markov chains. In this paper, the use of Markov chains for modelling wind speed data is discussed in the context of the previously proposed likelihood ratio test. The main steps for Markov chain based modelling methodology of wind speed are presented and the limiting distribution of the Markov chain is utilized to compute wind speed probabilities. The computational formulas for reliability indices of a wind farm consisting of a specified number of wind turbines are presented through the limiting distribution of a Markov chain. A case study that is based on real data set is also presented.Article A Class of Shock Models for a System That Is Equipped With a Protection Block With an Application to Wind Turbine Reliability(Wiley, 2025) Eryilmaz, SerkanThis paper studies a class of shock models for a system that is equipped with a protection block that has its own failure rate. Under the considered class, the system exposed to shocks at random times is protected by the protection block, and the probability of the shock damaging the system varies depending on whether the protection block operates or not. The system failure criteria is defined based on the pattern of the critical/damaging shocks. Exact expressions for the reliability and mean time to failure of the system are obtained, and detailed computations are presented for the run shock model, which is included in the class. The application of the extreme shock model, which is included in the relevant class, to wind turbine reliability is also discussed.Article Citation - WoS: 9Citation - Scopus: 10Reliability and Performance Evaluation of Weighted K-out-of- N :g System Consisting of Components With Discrete Lifetimes(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2024) Eryilmaz, SerkanFor the k-out-of-n n system consisting of components that have different weights, the system is in a good state if the total weight of working components is at least k . Such a system is known to be weighted k-out-of- n :G system. Although the weighted k-out-of-n n system that has continuously distributed components' lifetimes has been extensively studied, the discrete weighted k-out-of- n :G system has not been considered yet. The present paper fills this gap by modeling and analyzing the weighted k-out-of-n:G n :G system that consists of discretely distributed components' lifetimes. In particular, the behavior of the total capacity/weight of the system with respect to the component failures is evaluated. An optimization problem that is concerned with the determination of optimal number of spare components is also formulated by utilizing the mean lost capacity of the system.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 1Age replacement policies for discrete and continuous heterogeneous k-out-of-n systems(Springer, 2024) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Bulanik, IremThis paper studies age replacement policy for the k-out-of-n system that consists of independent but nonidentical components. Both continuously and discretely distributed components' lifetimes are considered. The failed components are replaced by new components and non-failed components are rejuvenated. Because the components are non-identical, the acquisition and rejuvenation costs of the components are chosen differently. The policy and the associated optimization problem are presented for general k and n, and 2-out-of-3 systems are studied in detail. The findings of the present paper extend the results in the literature from parallel systems to k-out-of-n systems.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5The Mean Number of Failed Components in Discrete Time Consecutive K-Out F System and Its Application To Parameter Estimation and Optimal Age-Based Preventive Replacement(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirIt is important in many respects to have information about the number of failed components in the system when or before a system fails. This paper investigates the mean number of failed components at or before the failure time of the linear consecutive k-out-of-n:F system which is a useful structure to model various engineering systems such as transportation and transmission systems. In particular, closed form expressions for the mean number of failed components within the system that have discretely distributed components lifetimes are obtained. The results are used to estimate the unknown parameter of the components' lifetime distribution and to find the optimal replacement cycle that minimizes the expected cost per unit of time under a certain age-based replacement policy.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2A New Extended δ-shock Model With the Consideration of Shock Magnitude(Wiley, 2024) Lorvand, Hamed; Eryilmaz, SerkanIn this article, a new delta$$ \delta $$-shock model that takes into account the magnitude of shocks is introduced and studied from reliability perspective. According to the new model, the system breaks down if either a shock after non-critical shock occurs in a time length less than delta 1$$ {\delta}_1 $$ or a shock after a critical shock occurs in a time length less than delta 2,$$ {\delta}_2, $$ where delta 1Article Citation - WoS: 6Citation - Scopus: 6On Reliability of Consecutive k-out-of-n:G System Equipped With Protection Blocks(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2026) Eryilmaz, SerkanThe linear consecutive k-out-of-n:G system consists of n linearly ordered components such that the system works properly when there exists at least k consecutively working components. This paper is concerned with the reliability evaluation of the linear consecutive k-out-of-n: G system equipped with protection blocks. Protection blocks which have their failure rates are used to increase the system reliability. The closed-form expressions for the system reliability when $ 2k\geq n $ 2k >= n are obtained when the most critical components, i.e. the components that have the highest importance levels are involved by the protection blocks. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the closed-form reliability equations.Article Citation - Scopus: 1The Distribution of Wind Power from a Dispersed Array of Wind Turbine Generators and Its Reliability Based Applications(Elsevier, 2026) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, Cihangir; Devrim, YilserIn this paper, the probability distribution of wind power from a dispersed array of wind turbine sites is studied considering forced outage rates of wind turbines. The wind speeds at distinct sites are assumed to be dependent and the dependence is modeled by copulas. In particular, the probability distribution of the aggregate power from two sites is exactly derived. The probability distribution of the aggregate power is also derived under the particular case when site 1 consists of n1 identical wind turbines of type 1 and site 2 consists of n2 identical wind turbines of type 2. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the theoretical findings for a chosen copula function.Article Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 7Reliability and Optimal Age-Based Replacement Policy for Consecutive 2-Out System Equipped With Protection Blocks(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2025) Eryilmaz, SerkanThis paper concerns the reliability evaluation and optimal age-based replacement policy for the linear consecutive 2-out-of-n:G system whose two consecutive components are protected by a block that has its own failure rate. Two alternative methods are proposed to compute the reliability of the system. The first method is based on direct probabilistic approach and uses the reliability of the ordinary consecutive 2-outof-n:G system. The second method is based on the concept of survival signature. Closed form equations for the system reliability and the mean number of failed components within the system are obtained. The optimal age-based replacement policy is also defined and studied. Extensive numerical results are presented to illustrate the findings.Article Citation - WoS: 6Citation - Scopus: 6Age Replacement Policy for Heterogeneous Parallel Systems(Elsevier, 2024) Ozdemir, Irem Bulanik; Kilicoglu, Sevval; Eryilmaz, SerkanThe optimization policy on age replacement mostly focuses on systems comprised of identical components. In this paper, both discrete and continuous time age replacement policies are considered by relaxing the assumption of identical components and working with heterogeneous parallel system, i.e. system with not necessarily identical components. In particular, necessary conditions are obtained for the existence and uniqueness of optimal replacement cycle/time for the parallel system with two nonidentical components under the proposed policy. The extension of the results to a system with more than two components is also presented.(c) 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.