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Article Citation - WoS: 13Citation - Scopus: 16An Analytic Network Process Based Risk Assessment Model for Ppp Hydropower Investments(Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2021) Akcay, Emre CanerThe number of public-private partnership (PPP) projects has gone up especially in developing countries. The risk assessment of PPP projects is essential in ensuring project success. The objective of this study is to develop an Analytic Network Process (ANP) based risk assessment model for hydropower investments, and a tool to facilitate quantification of risk ratings based on this model. The results show that the three most important risk factors that affect the overall risk rating of a PPP hydropower investment are legal risks, contractor/subcontractor risks, and operator risks. In addition, the three most important risk clusters were identified as stakeholders, government requirements, and resources, whereas market was the least important cluster. The tool that measures the risk rating of a PPP of hydropower project was tested on ten real cases, and satisfactory results were obtained in terms of its predictive capability. The contributions of this research include (1) identification of the risk factors and clusters of factors associated with PPP hydropower investments; (2) determination of the priority of each risk factor and cluster; (3) development a tool that guides the investors through the risk assessment of PPP hydropower investments.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Testing for Unit Roots in Nonlinear Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels With Logistic Smooth Breaks(Mdpi, 2023) Omay, Tolga; Ucar, NuriIn this study, we investigate the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) proposition for 34 European and selected global countries. For this purpose, we propose a new unit root test for cross-sectionally dependent heterogeneous panels that allows for gradual structural breaks and symmetric nonlinear adjustment toward the equilibrium level. The alternative hypothesis stationary is obtained by symmetric adjustment due to exponential smooth transition autoregression (ESTAR) around a nonlinear trend. Moreover, we provide small sample properties extensively for the newly proposed test. Hence, this alternative hypothesis has been proven to characterize real exchange rate data (REER) correctly. Thus, the newly proposed tests provide an essential basis for modeling the REER series correctly. Finally, we also derive the approximate asymptotic distribution of the proposed tests using new techniques.Article Citation - WoS: 35Citation - Scopus: 36Structural Break, Nonlinearity and Asymmetry: a Re-Examination of Ppp Proposition(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2018) Omay, Tolga; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Hasanov, MubarizIn this study, we examine the validity of the PPP proposition for 28 European countries. For this purpose, we propose a new unit root test procedure that allows for both gradual structural breaks and asymmetric nonlinear adjustment towards the equilibrium level. Small-sample properties of the new tests are examined through Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation results suggest that the new tests have satisfactory size and power properties. We then apply these new tests along with other unit root tests to examine stationarity properties of real exchange rate series of the sample countries. Our tests reject the null of unit root in more cases when compared to alternative tests. Overall, we find that the PPP proposition holds in majority of the European countries examined in this article.Article Citation - WoS: 5Citation - Scopus: 5Exploring the Critical Risk Factors of Public-Private Partnership City Hospital Projects in Turkey(Mdpi, 2024) Dogan Erdem, Tugba; Birgonul, Zeynep; Bilgin, Gozde; Akcay, Emre CanerGovernments face challenges in delivering essential public services due to their limited funds. This has led to an increasing reliance on the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model, an alternative financing model involving a long-term collaboration between the private and public sectors to provide public services. Turkey, as a developing country facing financial limitations, has embraced the PPP model to address urgent public needs. Over the past decade, the Turkish Government has extensively utilized the PPP model, particularly in executing city hospital projects. However, investors have faced challenges in project execution due to various risk factors. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to explore the critical risk factors associated with PPP city hospital projects in Turkey. In this context, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify potential risks related to PPP city hospital projects. A questionnaire survey was implemented to assess the probability of occurrence and the severity of the impact of these risk factors. The collected data underwent analysis to determine the priority of these risk factors. The findings revealed that the top five most critical risk factors in PPP city hospital projects in Turkey are "foreign exchange rate fluctuations", "inflation rate volatility", "high finance costs", "fiscal issues", and "economic crises". Conversely, "unavailability of equipment" was identified as the least significant risk factor. The insights gained from this research can offer valuable guidance for prospective investors interested in participating in PPP city hospital projects in Turkey and other developing countries with similar conditions.Article Citation - WoS: 19Citation - Scopus: 17Testing Ppp Hypothesis Under Temporary Structural Breaks and Asymmetric Dynamic Adjustments(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2020) Omay, Tolga; Shahbaz, Muhammed; Hasanov, MubarizWe test the empirical validity of the PPP proposition under temporary structural breaks and dynamic nonlinear adjustments. Although several testing procedures have recently been proposed in the existing literature to investigate stochastic properties of the series under gradual breaks and nonlinear adjustments, none of these tests are compatible with the PPP proposition. Therefore, we propose new testing procedures that restrict the break to be temporary while simultaneously allowing for asymmetric dynamic nonlinear adjustment towards equilibrium. Using these newly proposed tests, we test stationarity of real exchange rate of 24 OECD countries vis-a-vis USA, and find support in favour of PPP proposition in majority of the countries.
