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Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Modeling of Kappa Factor Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines: Application To the Western Türkiye Ground Motion Dataset(Springer, 2024) Kurtulmus, Tevfik Ozgur; Yerlikaya-Ozkurt, Fatma; Askan, AysegulThe recent seismic activity on Turkiye's west coast, especially in the Aegean Sea region, shows that this region requires further attention. The region has significant seismic hazards because of its location in an active tectonic regime of North-South extension with multiple basin structures on soft soil deposits. Recently, despite being 70 km from the earthquake source, the Samos event (with a moment magnitude of 7.0 on October 30, 2020) caused significant localized damage and collapse in the Izmir city center due to a combination of basin effects and structural susceptibility. Despite this activity, research on site characterization and site response modeling, such as local velocity models and kappa estimates, remains sparse in this region. Kappa values display regional characteristics, necessitating the use of local kappa estimations from previous earthquake data in region-specific applications. Kappa estimates are multivariate and incorporate several characteristics such as magnitude and distance. In this study, we assess and predict the trend in mean kappa values using three-component strong-ground motion data from accelerometer sites with known VS30 values throughout western Turkiye. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) were used to build the prediction models. The effects of epicentral distance Repi, magnitude Mw, and site class (VS30) were investigated, and the contributions of each parameter were examined using a large dataset containing recent seismic activity. The models were evaluated using well-known statistical accuracy criteria for kappa assessment. In all performance measures, the MARS model outperforms the MLR model across the selected sites.Article Citation - WoS: 9Citation - Scopus: 10Prediction of Potential Seismic Damage Using Classification and Regression Trees: a Case Study on Earthquake Damage Databases From Turkey(Springer, 2020) Yerlikaya-Ozkurt, Fatma; Askan, AysegulSeismic damage estimation is an important key ingredient of seismic loss modeling, risk mitigation and disaster management. It is a problem involving inherent uncertainties and complexities. Thus, it is important to employ robust approaches which will handle the problem accurately. In this study, classification and regression tree approach is applied on damage data sets collected from reinforced concrete frame buildings after major previous earthquakes in Turkey. Four damage states ranging from None to Severe are used, while five structural parameters are employed as damage identifiers. For validation, results of classification analyses are compared against observed damage states. Results in terms of well-known classification performance measures indicate that when the size of the database is larger, the correct classification rates are higher. Performance measures computed for Test data set indicate similar success to that of Train data set. The approach is found to be effective in classifying randomly selected damage data.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 6Strategic Electricity Production Planning of Turkey Via Mixed Integer Programming Based on Time Series Forecasting(Mdpi, 2023) Yoruk, Gokay; Bac, Ugur; Yerlikaya-Ozkurt, Fatma; Unlu, Kamil DemirberkThis study examines Turkey's energy planning in terms of strategic planning, energy policy, electricity production planning, technology selection, and environmental policies. A mixed integer optimization model is proposed for strategic electricity planning in Turkey. A set of energy resources is considered simultaneously in this research, and in addition to cost minimization, different strategic level policies, such as CO2 emission reduction policies, energy resource import/export restriction policies, and renewable energy promotion policies, are also considered. To forecast electricity demand over the planning horizon, a variety of forecasting techniques, including regression methods, exponential smoothing, Winter's method, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average methods, are used, and the best method is chosen using various error measures. The optimization model constructed for Turkey's Strategic Electricity Planning is obtained for two different planning intervals. The findings indicate that the use of renewable energy generation options, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric alternatives, will increase significantly, while the use of fossil fuels in energy generation will decrease sharply. The findings of this study suggest a gradual increase in investments in renewable energy-based electricity production strategies are required to eventually replace fossil fuel alternatives. This change not only reduces investment, operation, and maintenance costs, but also reduces emissions in the long term.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 8Modeling the Mood State on Thermal Sensation With a Data Mining Algorithm and Testing the Accuracy of Mood State Correction Factor(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2025) Yerlikaya-Ozkurt, Fatma; Ozbey, Mehmet Furkan; Turhan, CihanPsychology is proven as an influencing factor on thermal sensation. On the other hand, mood state is one of the significant parameters in psychology field. To this aim, in the literature, mood state correction factor on thermal sensation (Turhan and Ozbey coefficients) is derived utilizing with data-driven black-box model. However, novel models which present analytical form of the mood state correction factor should be derived based on the several descriptive variables on thermal sensation. Moreover, the result of this factor should also be checked with analytical model results. Therefore, this study investigates the modelling of mood state correction factor with a data mining algorithm, called Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Additionally, the mood state is also taken as a thermal sensation parameter besides environmental parameters in this algorithm. The same data, which are collected from a university study hall in a temperate climate zone, are used and the model results are compared with the thermal sensation results based on mood state correction factor which is driven via black-box model. The results show that coefficient of correlation "r" between the MARS and black-box model is found as 0.9426 and 0.9420 for training and testing. Hence, the mood state is also modelled via a data mining algorithm with a high accuracy, besides the black-box model.
