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Article Citation - WoS: 6Citation - Scopus: 4Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear, asymmetric panel-data evidence(Wiley, 2020) Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Gupta, Rangan; Miller, Stephen M.; Omay, TolgaThis paper re-examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit-root procedures. The new developments incorporate non-linearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional correlation within panel-data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional dependence.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 2A Tale of Two Taxes: State-Dependency of Tax Policy(Wiley, 2024) Arin, Kerim Peren; Gahramanov, Emin; Omay, Tolga; Tang, Xueli; Ulubasoglu, Mehmet A.In this paper, we build a simple endogenous growth model with labour and corporate taxes to investigate the asymmetric effects of tax policy over the growth trajectory. We employ a newly developed panel smooth transition model to empirically analyse a sample of 19 advanced economies over the 1961-2017 period. We find that both the asymmetric effects and the tax measures used are essential. We also find that the effects of corporate and personal taxes on long-run growth are non-linear, while the detrimental effects of personal taxes are empirically larger compared to those of corporate taxes once non-linearities are controlled for.Article Citation - WoS: 14Citation - Scopus: 14A Regime Switching Model for Temperature Modeling and Applications To Weather Derivatives Pricing(Springer Heidelberg, 2020) Turkvatan, Aysun; Omay, Tolga; Hayfavi, Azize; Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Economics; EconomicsIn this study, we propose a regime-switching model for temperature dynamics, where the parameters depend on a Markov chain. We improve upon the traditional models by modeling jumps in temperature dynamics via the chain itself. Moreover, we compare the performance of the proposed model with the existing models. The results indicate that the proposed model outperforms in the short time forecast horizon while the forecast performance of the proposed model is in line with the existing models for the long time horizon. It is shown that the proposed model is a relatively better representation of temperature dynamics compared to the existing models. Furthermore, we derive prices of weather derivatives written on several temperature indices.Article HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS VS. STRUCTURALIST VIEW IN CANADA: A NEW TEST FOR THE SHARP BREAK AND SMOOTH SHIFT(Acad Economic Studies, 2021) Bolat, Suleyman; Belke, Murat; Omay, TolgaWe have investigated the hysteresis hypothesis using a newly proposed unit root test which considers both sharp breaks and smooth shifts in its testing process for Canada during the period 1960-2019 in this study. The so-called unit root test allows researchers control for sharp breaks such as crises, smooth shifts such as nonlinearities, simultaneously. In proposing this highly complex trend structure, we are also proposing a new way for the macroeconomic theorist to model the unemployment rate following the structuralist view. It takes into account the structural breaks and possible nonlinearities as form of smooth shifts which leads to a new form of structuralist view. The empirical results display that the unemployment rates in Canada follow a non-hysteresis path under the presence of sharp and smooth structural breaks.
