7 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
Article Citation - WoS: 12Citation - Scopus: 15Dynamic Reliability Evaluation of Consecutive-K System(Taylor & Francis inc, 2011) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirA consecutive k-within-m-out-of-n:F system consists of n linearly ordered components and fails if and only if there are m consecutive components which include among them at least k failed components. This system model generalizes both consecutive k-out-of-n:F and k-out-of-n:F systems. In this article, we study the dynamic reliability properties of consecutive k-within-m-out-of-n:F system consisting of exchangeable dependent components. We also obtain some stochastic ordering results and use them to get simple approximation formulae for the survival function and mean time to failure of this system.Article Citation - WoS: 75Citation - Scopus: 77Reliability and Optimal Replacement Policy for an Extreme Shock Model With a Change Point(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2019) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirAn extreme shock model when there is a change in the distribution of the magnitudes of shocks is defined and studied. Such a model is useful in practice since a sudden change in environmental conditions may cause a larger shock. In particular, the reliability and mean time to failure of the system is obtained by assuming that the times between arrivals of shocks follow phase-type distribution. The optimal replacement policy that is based on a control limit is also proposed. The results are illustrated when the number of shocks until the change point follows geometric distribution.Article Citation - WoS: 13Citation - Scopus: 13Reliability Assessment of a Discrete Time Cold Standby Repairable System(Springer, 2021) Kan, Cihangir; Eryilmaz, SerkanThis paper is concerned with the study of a discrete time repairable system consisting of one active and one standby component. The lifetime and repair time are assumed to have discrete phase-type distributions. The system's lifetime is represented as a compound random variable. A matrix-based expression for the probability generating function of the system's lifetime is obtained based on the phase characteristics of lifetime and repair time distributions. The probability generating function is then used to obtain the distribution of the system's lifetime. Reliability and hazard rate functions are computed and evaluated for some particular choices of lifetime and repair time distributions. The limiting behavior of the hazard rates is also investigated.Article Citation - WoS: 26Citation - Scopus: 28Reliability Assessment for Discrete Time Shock Models Via Phase-Type Distributions(Wiley, 2021) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirIn this paper, particular shock models are studied for the case when the times between successive shocks and the magnitudes of shocks have discrete phase-type distributions. The well-known shock models such as delta shock model, extreme shock model, and the mixed shock model which is obtained by combining delta and extreme shock models are considered. The probability generating function and recursive equation for the distribution of the system's lifetime are obtained for the cases when the interarrival times between shocks and the magnitudes of shocks are independent and when they are dependent. System reliability is computed for particular interarrival distributions such as geometric, negative Binomial and generalized geometric distributions.Article Citation - WoS: 17Citation - Scopus: 25On the Theoretical Distribution of the Wind Farm Power When There Is a Correlation Between Wind Speed and Wind Turbine Availability(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2020) Kan, Cihangir; Devrim, Yilser; Eryilmaz, SerkanIt is important to elicit information about the potential power output of a wind turbine and a wind farm consisting of specified number of wind turbines before installation of the turbines. Such information can be used to estimate the potential power output of the wind farm which will be built in a specific region. The output power of a wind turbine is affected by two factors: wind speed and turbine availability. As shown in the literature, the correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability has an impact on the output of a wind farm. Thus, the probability distribution of the power produced by the farm depending on the wind speed distribution and turbine availability can be effectively used for planning and risk management. In this paper, the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power is derived by considering the dependence between turbine availability and the wind speed. The theoretical results are illustrated for real wind turbine reliability and wind speed data.Article Citation - WoS: 12Citation - Scopus: 13A NEW SHOCK MODEL WITH A CHANGE IN SHOCK SIZE DISTRIBUTION(Cambridge Univ Press, 2021) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirFor a system that is subject to shocks, it is assumed that the distribution of the magnitudes of shocks changes after the first shock of size at least d(1), and the system fails upon the occurrence of the first shock above a critical level d(2) (> d(1)). In this paper, the distribution of the lifetime of such a system is studied when the times between successive shocks follow matrix-exponential distribution. In particular, it is shown that the system's lifetime has matrix-exponential distribution when the intershock times follow Erlang distribution. The model is extended to the case when the system fails upon the occurrence of l consecutive critical shocks.Article Citation - WoS: 36Citation - Scopus: 39Reliability Based Modeling and Analysis for a Wind Power System Integrated by Two Wind Farms Considering Wind Speed Dependence(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2020) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, CihangirIntegrating multiple wind farms into power systems may reduce the fluctuation in total power output of wind farms and hence it decreases the system risk resulting from the wind speed variability. In this paper, a wind power system consisting of two wind farms is modeled and analyzed considering the dependence between wind speeds at two sites. In particular, the system is modeled as a threshold system and reliability values of wind turbines are also taken into account in capacity based calculations. The results are illustrated for the available bivariate wind speed data in the literature.
