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Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 10Current Account and Credit Growth: the Role of Household Credit and Financial Depth(Elsevier Science inc, 2020) Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Omay, Tolga; Economics; EconomicsUnderstanding the impact of financial variables on the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policymakers. Evidence from a broad panel of advanced and emerging countries shows that an increase in credit growth is associated with a significant deterioration in the current account balance. When we examine the roles of the components of credit, we find that an increase in household credit causes a significant decline in the current account balance, whereas an increase in business loans has no significant effect. Therefore, our findings indicate that the significant negative impact of credit growth on the current account balance is driven by household credit. Furthermore, we show that total and household credit growth rates have a stronger negative effect on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. Our results suggest that targeted policy measures that curb household credit growth might be more effective to reduce external imbalances particularly at the early stages of financial deepening.Article Oil Price Pass-Through on Sector-Level Prices: Evidence From Turkey(2023) Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Saygılı, HülyaAs energy dependency is one of the main drivers of rising global inflation, understanding the sectoral outlook for the effects of oil prices on inflation is crucial. This paper investigates oil price pass-through to consumer prices in Turkey utilizing a Phillips Curve estimation approach. Extending the results in the literature, we estimate Brent crude petroleum price pass-through coefficients for the 2-digit sectoral components of the consumer price index. Then, we compare the sector-level pass-through rates to the ones obtained from the headline and core inflation. We also apply a recursive estimation modeling to track pass-through behavior over time for each inflation series. The paper has several conclusions. First, the long-run oil price pass-through to headline inflation is around 7%. Second, pass-through to the core and sectoral inflation rates exhibit a significant amount of variation from headline inflation. Results with core inflation rates depend on whether energy prices are included or excluded from the consumer basket. Third, the sectoral pass-through rate depends on the weight of the energy-related items in that sector. Our findings suggest that the transport sector has the highest degree of pass-through. Fourth, the rate of pass-through to all prices increases following the hikes in inflation rates in September 2018 and October 2021.Article Citation - WoS: 3Citation - Scopus: 3Macroprudential Policies and Current Account Balance(Elsevier, 2022) Ozcan, Guelserim; Ekinci, Mehmet FatihMacroprudential policies have become essential tools for policymakers to maintain financial stability. We investigate the impact of macroprudential policies on the current account balance, considering the link between external imbalances and financial stability. Building on a panel VAR model, we further document that usage of a macroprudential instrument is associated with an improvement in the current account balance. Our findings suggest that the positive impact of macroprudential policy measures on the current account balance is more substantial in the deficit countries. (c) 2022 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
