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Article Citation - Scopus: 1The Distribution of Wind Power from a Dispersed Array of Wind Turbine Generators and Its Reliability Based Applications(Elsevier, 2026) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, Cihangir; Devrim, YilserIn this paper, the probability distribution of wind power from a dispersed array of wind turbine sites is studied considering forced outage rates of wind turbines. The wind speeds at distinct sites are assumed to be dependent and the dependence is modeled by copulas. In particular, the probability distribution of the aggregate power from two sites is exactly derived. The probability distribution of the aggregate power is also derived under the particular case when site 1 consists of n1 identical wind turbines of type 1 and site 2 consists of n2 identical wind turbines of type 2. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the theoretical findings for a chosen copula function.Article Citation - WoS: 17Citation - Scopus: 25On the Theoretical Distribution of the Wind Farm Power When There Is a Correlation Between Wind Speed and Wind Turbine Availability(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2020) Kan, Cihangir; Devrim, Yilser; Eryilmaz, SerkanIt is important to elicit information about the potential power output of a wind turbine and a wind farm consisting of specified number of wind turbines before installation of the turbines. Such information can be used to estimate the potential power output of the wind farm which will be built in a specific region. The output power of a wind turbine is affected by two factors: wind speed and turbine availability. As shown in the literature, the correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability has an impact on the output of a wind farm. Thus, the probability distribution of the power produced by the farm depending on the wind speed distribution and turbine availability can be effectively used for planning and risk management. In this paper, the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power is derived by considering the dependence between turbine availability and the wind speed. The theoretical results are illustrated for real wind turbine reliability and wind speed data.Article Citation - WoS: 18Citation - Scopus: 21Theoretical Derivation of Wind Plant Power Distribution With the Consideration of Wind Turbine Reliability(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2019) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Devrim, YilserThe wind power generated by a wind plant has a stochastic nature due to randomness in the wind speed. Although the empirical distribution of the wind power has been extensively studied by using data sets in different regions, several works focused on theoretical distribution of the wind power produced by wind turbines. In this paper, the theoretical distribution of the wind plant power is obtained. In the derivation of the distribution of the wind plant power, wind turbine reliability is taken into account. The wind plant power distribution can be effectively used if the wind speed probability distribution is known. Theoretical results are illustrated for Weibull and Bimbaum-Saunders wind speed distributions which have been found to be suitable for real data collected at two different locations.
