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Author: Boduroglu, ElifPublication Index: Scopus

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    Citation - WoS: 2
    Citation - Scopus: 2
    Phase and Wave Dependent Analysis of Health Expenditure Efficiency: a Sample of Oecd Evidence
    (Frontiers Media Sa, 2023) Boduroglu, Elif; Atici, Kazim Baris; Omay, Tolga
    IntroductionHealth expenditures are a factor that reflects the government's public health policy and contributes to the protection of national health. Therefore, this study focuses on measuring the effectiveness of health expenditures in order to evaluate and improve the public health system and policy during the pandemic period. MethodIn order to examine the effectiveness of health expenditures, the behaviors of the pandemic process were analyzed in two stages. The number of daily cases is analyzed in the first stage by dividing it into waves and phases according to the transmission coefficient (R). For this classification, the discrete cumulative Fourier function estimation is used. In the second stage, the unit root test method was used to estimate the stationarity of the number of cases in order to examine whether the countries made effective health expenditures according to waves and phases. The series being stationary indicates that the cases are predictable and that health expenditure is efficient. Data consists of daily cases from February 2020 to November 2021 for 5 OECD countries. ConclusionThe general results are shown that cases cannot be predicted, especially in the first stage of the pandemic. In the relaxation phase and at the beginning of the second wave, the countries that were seriously affected by the epidemic started to control the number of cas es by taking adequate measures, thus increasing the efficiency of their health systems. The common feature of all the countries we examined is that phase 1, which represents the beginning of the waves, is not stationary. After the waves fade, it can be concluded that the stationary number of health cases cannot be sustainable in preventing new waves' formation. It is seen that countries cannot make effective health expenditures for each wave and stage. According to these findings, the periods in which countries made effective health expenditures during the pandemic are shown. DiscussionThe study aims to help countries make effective short- and long-term decisions about pandemics. The research provides a view of the effectiveness of health expenditures on the number of cases per day in 5 OECD countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic.
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    Fröbenius Expansions for Second-Order Random Differential Equations: Stochastic Analysis and Applications to Lindley-Type Damping Models
    (Elsevier, 2026) Zeghdoudi, Halim; Kerker, Mohamed Amine; Boduroglu, Elif
    This paper develops a Frobenius series framework for the stochastic analysis of second-order random differential equations of the form Y(t) + A(t)Y(t) = 0, where the damping coefficient A(t) is a positive stochastic process and the initial conditions are square-integrable random variables. Assuming mean-square analyticity of A(t) in a neighborhood of the initial time, we establish existence and uniqueness of the solution in L2(Omega) and derive exponentially convergent truncation error bounds for the associated Frobenius expansion. The resulting series representation enables the numerical approximation of the probability density function of Y(t) via Monte Carlo simulation. To improve computational efficiency, a control variates strategy is incorporated for variance reduction. A comprehensive numerical study is conducted for a broad family of positive, right-skewed damping distributions, including the Lindley, XLindley, New XLindley (NXLD), Gamma-Lindley, Inverse-Lindley, Truncated-Lindley, Log-Lindley, and a newly proposed Mixed Lindley-Uniform model. The simulations illustrate how different tail behaviors and boundedness properties of the damping coefficient influence the stochastic dynamics and the accuracy of density estimation. Finally, stylized applications to option pricing and Value-at-Risk estimation are presented to illustrate how the Frobenius-based framework and control variates methodology can be embedded within standard uncertainty quantification workflows. Overall, the proposed approach provides a flexible and computationally efficient tool for the analysis of randomly damped dynamical systems.
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    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    Shaken, Stirred and Indebted: Firm-Level Effects of Earthquakes
    (Elsevier Science inc, 2024) Arin, K. Peren; Arnau, Josep Marti; Boduroglu, Elif; Celik, Esref Ugur; Marti Arnau, Josep
    Using firm-level data from Turkiye, we investigate the effects of earthquakes on firms' balance sheets. We find that earthquakes increase firms' liabilities but have a smaller effect on firms' assets, both in magnitude and significance. Using surveys sent to the finance and/or accounting managers of the largest 100 firms in Turkiye we identify common themes in their perceptions. Our findings reveal a consensus among respondents attributing the increased liabilities to exchange rate depreciation and lower business activity following a disaster. Conversely, higher availability of external credit is associated with a decrease in liabilities. Our analysis also indicates that finance managers with higher educational attainment may be underestimating the effects of earthquakes.