Measuring Dependence Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Indicators Via Copulas: Turkish Case

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Date

2018

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Gazi Univ

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Mathematics
(2000)
The Atılım University Department of Mathematics was founded in 2000 and it offers education in English. The Department offers students the opportunity to obtain a certificate in Mathematical Finance or Cryptography, aside from their undergraduate diploma. Our students may obtain a diploma secondary to their diploma in Mathematics with the Double-Major Program; as well as a certificate in their minor alongside their diploma in Mathematics through the Minor Program. Our graduates may pursue a career in academics at universities, as well as be hired in sectors such as finance, education, banking, and informatics. Our Department has been accredited by the evaluation and accreditation organization FEDEK for a duration of 5 years (until September 30th, 2025), the maximum FEDEK accreditation period achievable. Our Department is globally and nationally among the leading Mathematics departments with a program that suits international standards and a qualified academic staff; even more so for the last five years with our rankings in the field rankings of URAP, THE, USNEWS and WEBOFMETRIC.

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Abstract

This paper implements copulas to identify the dependence structure between electricity consumption and its cofounding indicators. To achieve this, Turkish electricity demand, its economic and sectoral indicators are taken into account. As a first step, bivariate copulas are used to identify the best fitting copula and the degree of the dependence. Thereafter, multivariate model is established using vine copulas using highly correlated variables. The empirical results confirm the added value of the proposed approach in determining numerous tail properties. We indicate that the copulas are useful to underline, especially, the tail properties of indicators in the market for decision makers.

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Selcuk-Kestel, Ayse Sevtap/0000-0001-5647-7973; Yozgatligil, Ceylan/0000-0003-3492-0510

Keywords

Electricity demand, Economic indicators, Sectorial indicators, Bivariate Copulas, Vines

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Source

Gazi University Journal of Science

Volume

31

Issue

4

Start Page

1284

End Page

1296