Breaking the Cycle: A Systemic Analysis of Socio-Technical Barriers and Policy Priorities for Biomass Technology in an Emerging Economy

Abstract

This study addresses the critical challenge of slow biomass technology adoption in emerging economies, using Türkiye-with a potential of 3.9 MToe annually-as a representative case. Despite its promise for clean energy and rural development, adoption is stifled by a complex web of socio-economic and cultural barriers. Moving beyond isolated analyses, this research employs a novel Interval-Valued Picture Fuzzy Interpretive Structural Modeling and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification approach to model the interdependencies and uncertainties among 17 key barriers identified from literature and expert input. The findings of this study provide a strategic hierarchy for policymakers, revealing that weak regulatory frameworks, gender roles, health concerns, cultural taboos around waste use, and land-use conflicts are the fundamental driving barriers that perpetuate dependent challenges such as high costs and low awareness. To break this cycle, we propose a targeted policy framework prioritizing robust regulations with financial incentives, genderinclusive training programs, public health campaigns, and community-based ownership models. These interventions offer a systemic roadmap to accelerate sustainable biomass adoption, directly supporting progress towards UN Sustainable Development Goals 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), 12 (Responsible Consumption), and 13 (Climate Action) in Türkiye and similar emerging economies where comparable socio-technical conditions prevail.