Saygılı, Hülya

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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14411/7083
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H.,Saygili
S., Hulya
Saygılı, Hülya
Saygılı,H.
S.,Hulya
S., Hülya
Saygili, Hulya
Saygili,H.
Saygili, Huelya
Hülya, Saygili
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Hülya, Saygılı
Saygili, Hülya
Sayglll H.
H., Saygılı
Hulya, Saygili
Saygili H.
S.,Hülya
Job Title
Doktor Öğretim Üyesi
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hulya.saygili@atilim.edu.tr
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International Trade and Logistics
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0000-0001-9498-6111
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WoS Researcher ID
IZP-9221-2023

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Author: Yilmaz, Hakki HakanSubject: Long-Run Relationship

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    Article
    Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Inflation Dynamics: Evidence From a Major Emerging Market Economy
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Saygili, Huelya; Yilmaz, Hakki Hakan
    This study examines the long-run aspects of fiscal policy on inflation in T & uuml;rkiye, using a multivariate co-integration approach with quarterly data from 2006Q1 to 2024Q2. A key contribution of the study lies in its emphasis on the long-run dynamics between various budgetary policy instruments and inflation. We find no significant long-run relationship between inflation and fiscal policy measured at the aggregate level such as budget balance, total expenditures, and revenues. However, examining the specific components, we find statistically significant long-run positive relationships between inflation and indirect taxes - particularly the special consumption tax - and operational government expenditures. Recursive estimates suggest that the relationship between inflation and fiscal instruments has strengthened since 2021 when T & uuml;rkiye started to experience a high inflation episode diverging from global inflation trends with a deterioration in public finance performance. These findings align with the fiscal theory of price level, as the theory implies that persistent fiscal deficits without credible plans for future surpluses can lead to sustained inflationary pressures.