Saygılı, Hülya

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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14411/7083
Name Variants
H.,Saygili
S., Hulya
Saygılı, Hülya
Saygılı,H.
S.,Hulya
S., Hülya
Saygili, Hulya
Saygili,H.
Saygili, Huelya
Hülya, Saygili
H., Saygili
H.,Saygılı
Hülya, Saygılı
Saygili, Hülya
Sayglll H.
H., Saygılı
Hulya, Saygili
Saygili H.
S.,Hülya
Job Title
Doktor Öğretim Üyesi
Email Address
hulya.saygili@atilim.edu.tr
Main Affiliation
International Trade and Logistics
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Website
ORCID ID
0000-0001-9498-6111
Scopus Author ID
Turkish CoHE Profile ID
Google Scholar ID
WoS Researcher ID
IZP-9221-2023

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SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES
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Documents

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Author: Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih

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Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Article
    Oil Price Pass-Through on Sector-Level Prices: Evidence From Turkey
    (2023) Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Saygılı, Hülya
    As energy dependency is one of the main drivers of rising global inflation, understanding the sectoral outlook for the effects of oil prices on inflation is crucial. This paper investigates oil price pass-through to consumer prices in Turkey utilizing a Phillips Curve estimation approach. Extending the results in the literature, we estimate Brent crude petroleum price pass-through coefficients for the 2-digit sectoral components of the consumer price index. Then, we compare the sector-level pass-through rates to the ones obtained from the headline and core inflation. We also apply a recursive estimation modeling to track pass-through behavior over time for each inflation series. The paper has several conclusions. First, the long-run oil price pass-through to headline inflation is around 7%. Second, pass-through to the core and sectoral inflation rates exhibit a significant amount of variation from headline inflation. Results with core inflation rates depend on whether energy prices are included or excluded from the consumer basket. Third, the sectoral pass-through rate depends on the weight of the energy-related items in that sector. Our findings suggest that the transport sector has the highest degree of pass-through. Fourth, the rate of pass-through to all prices increases following the hikes in inflation rates in September 2018 and October 2021.
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    Article
    Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Inflation Dynamics: Evidence From a Major Emerging Market Economy
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Saygili, Huelya; Yilmaz, Hakki Hakan
    This study examines the long-run aspects of fiscal policy on inflation in T & uuml;rkiye, using a multivariate co-integration approach with quarterly data from 2006Q1 to 2024Q2. A key contribution of the study lies in its emphasis on the long-run dynamics between various budgetary policy instruments and inflation. We find no significant long-run relationship between inflation and fiscal policy measured at the aggregate level such as budget balance, total expenditures, and revenues. However, examining the specific components, we find statistically significant long-run positive relationships between inflation and indirect taxes - particularly the special consumption tax - and operational government expenditures. Recursive estimates suggest that the relationship between inflation and fiscal instruments has strengthened since 2021 when T & uuml;rkiye started to experience a high inflation episode diverging from global inflation trends with a deterioration in public finance performance. These findings align with the fiscal theory of price level, as the theory implies that persistent fiscal deficits without credible plans for future surpluses can lead to sustained inflationary pressures.