Eryılmaz, Serkan

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Citation - Scopus: 1
The Distribution of Wind Power from a Dispersed Array of Wind Turbine Generators and Its Reliability Based Applications
(Elsevier, 2026) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, Cihangir; Devrim, Yilser
In this paper, the probability distribution of wind power from a dispersed array of wind turbine sites is studied considering forced outage rates of wind turbines. The wind speeds at distinct sites are assumed to be dependent and the dependence is modeled by copulas. In particular, the probability distribution of the aggregate power from two sites is exactly derived. The probability distribution of the aggregate power is also derived under the particular case when site 1 consists of n1 identical wind turbines of type 1 and site 2 consists of n2 identical wind turbines of type 2. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the theoretical findings for a chosen copula function.
Citation - WoS: 17
Citation - Scopus: 25
On the Theoretical Distribution of the Wind Farm Power When There Is a Correlation Between Wind Speed and Wind Turbine Availability
(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2020) Kan, Cihangir; Devrim, Yilser; Eryilmaz, Serkan
It is important to elicit information about the potential power output of a wind turbine and a wind farm consisting of specified number of wind turbines before installation of the turbines. Such information can be used to estimate the potential power output of the wind farm which will be built in a specific region. The output power of a wind turbine is affected by two factors: wind speed and turbine availability. As shown in the literature, the correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability has an impact on the output of a wind farm. Thus, the probability distribution of the power produced by the farm depending on the wind speed distribution and turbine availability can be effectively used for planning and risk management. In this paper, the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power is derived by considering the dependence between turbine availability and the wind speed. The theoretical results are illustrated for real wind turbine reliability and wind speed data.
Citation - WoS: 37
Citation - Scopus: 40
Reliability Based Modeling and Analysis for a Wind Power System Integrated by Two Wind Farms Considering Wind Speed Dependence
(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2020) Eryilmaz, Serkan; Kan, Cihangir
Integrating multiple wind farms into power systems may reduce the fluctuation in total power output of wind farms and hence it decreases the system risk resulting from the wind speed variability. In this paper, a wind power system consisting of two wind farms is modeled and analyzed considering the dependence between wind speeds at two sites. In particular, the system is modeled as a threshold system and reliability values of wind turbines are also taken into account in capacity based calculations. The results are illustrated for the available bivariate wind speed data in the literature.

Journal	Count
Reliability Engineering & System Safety	28
Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics	20
IEEE Transactions on Reliability	15
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry	10
Statistics & Probability Letters	9

Eryılmaz, Serkan

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