Omay, Tolga

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Profile URL
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14411/7237
Name Variants
T.,Omay
Omay, Tolga
O., Tolga
Tolga, Omay
Omay,T.
O.,Tolga
T., Omay
Omay T.
Job Title
Profesor Doktor
Email Address
tolga.omay@atilim.edu.tr
Main Affiliation
Economics
Status
Website
ORCID ID
Scopus Author ID
23978235900
Turkish CoHE Profile ID
Google Scholar ID
WoS Researcher ID
GDI-4259-2022

Sustainable Development Goals

NO POVERTY1
NO POVERTY
0
Research Products
ZERO HUNGER2
ZERO HUNGER
0
Research Products
GOOD HEALTH AND WELL-BEING3
GOOD HEALTH AND WELL-BEING
2
Research Products
QUALITY EDUCATION4
QUALITY EDUCATION
0
Research Products
GENDER EQUALITY5
GENDER EQUALITY
0
Research Products
CLEAN WATER AND SANITATION6
CLEAN WATER AND SANITATION
0
Research Products
AFFORDABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY7
AFFORDABLE AND CLEAN ENERGY
3
Research Products
DECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH8
DECENT WORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
11
Research Products
INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE9
INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
3
Research Products
REDUCED INEQUALITIES10
REDUCED INEQUALITIES
2
Research Products
SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES11
SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND COMMUNITIES
1
Research Products
RESPONSIBLE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION12
RESPONSIBLE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION
1
Research Products
CLIMATE ACTION13
CLIMATE ACTION
7
Research Products
LIFE BELOW WATER14
LIFE BELOW WATER
2
Research Products
LIFE ON LAND15
LIFE ON LAND
1
Research Products
PEACE, JUSTICE AND STRONG INSTITUTIONS16
PEACE, JUSTICE AND STRONG INSTITUTIONS
0
Research Products
PARTNERSHIPS FOR THE GOALS17
PARTNERSHIPS FOR THE GOALS
7
Research Products
Documents

80

Citations

1218

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20

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Documents

74

Citations

1075

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Scholarly Output

70

Articles

58

Views / Downloads

269/2443

Supervised MSc Theses

4

Supervised PhD Theses

4

WoS Citation Count

435

Scopus Citation Count

503

Patents

0

Projects

0

WoS Citations per Publication

6.21

Scopus Citations per Publication

7.19

Open Access Source

34

Supervised Theses

8

JournalCount
Computational Economics6
Applied Economics5
Mathematics3
Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics -- 4th International Conference on Banking and Fice Perspectives, ICBFP 2019 -- 2 May 2019 through 3 May 2019 -- Famagusta -- 2737293
Environmental Modeling & Assessment2
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Subject: C22

Scholarly Output Search Results

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
  • Thumbnail Image
    Article
    Citation - WoS: 3
    Citation - Scopus: 3
    Comparison of the Performance of Structural Break Tests in Stationary and Nonstationary Series: a New Bootstrap Algorithm
    (Springer, 2024) Camalan, Ozge; Hasdemir, Esra; Omay, Tolga; Kucuker, Mustafa Can
    Structural breaks are considered as permanent changes in the series mainly because of shocks, policy changes, and global crises. Hence, making estimations by ignoring the presence of structural breaks may cause the biased parameter value. In this context, it is vital to identify the presence of the structural breaks and the break dates in the series to prevent misleading results. Accordingly, the first aim of this study is to compare the performance of unit root with structural break tests allowing a single break and multiple structural breaks. For this purpose, firstly, a Monte Carlo simulation study has been conducted through using a generated homoscedastic and stationary series in different sample sizes to evaluate the performances of these tests. As a result of the simulation study, Zivot and Andrews (J Bus Econ Stat 20(1):25-44, 1992) are the best-performing tests in capturing a single break. The most powerful tests for the multiple break setting are those developed by Kapetanios (J Time Ser Anal 26(1):123-133, 2005) and Perron (Palgrave Handb Econom 1:278-352, 2006). A new Bootstrap algorithm has been proposed along with the study's primary aim. This newly proposed Bootstrap algorithm calculates the optimal number of statistically significant structural breaks under more general assumptions. Therefore, it guarantees finding an accurate number of optimal breaks in real-world data. In the empirical part, structural breaks in the real interest rate data of the US and Australia resulting from policy changes have been examined. The results concluded that the bootstrap sequential break test is the best-performing approach due to the general assumption made to cover real-world data.
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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 5
    Citation - Scopus: 5
    Historical Environmental Kuznets Curve for the Usa and the Uk: Cyclical Environmental Kuznets Curve Evidence
    (Springer, 2024) Omay, Tolga; Yildirim, Julide; Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye
    Human activities, including population growth, industrialization, and urbanization, have increasingly impacted the environment. Despite the benefits of economic growth to individual welfare, its negative environmental consequences necessitate a thorough assessment. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), positing an inverted U-shaped relationship between income per capita and environmental degradation, has been extensively studied since its proposition by Grossman and Krueger (Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement, National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, 1991. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3914). However, empirical evidence on the validity and shape of the EKC varies due to methodological differences, country-specific dynamics, and other factors. Examining the historical growth paths of individual countries helps explain the mixed findings in empirical EKC research. Long-term data allow researchers to determine the EKC's shape and turning points, aiding policymakers in devising appropriate environmental policies for each economic growth cycle within the framework of global environmental governance. Accordingly, this study contributes to the literature by taking a historical perspective on the EKC, focusing specifically on the United States and the United Kingdom. Drawing on data spanning from 1850, we employ advanced econometric techniques, including fractional frequency flexible Fourier form Dickey-Fuller-type unit root tests and structural breaks unit root tests, to overcome limitations of traditional linearized EKC estimations. Moreover, the classical polynomial regression approach is employed to model the long-term cycles based on the scatterplot inspection of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) and per capita GNP series. Contrary to conventional expectations, our empirical findings do not support the existence of a clear inverted U-shaped EKC relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth for either country. Instead, our analysis reveals the presence of multiple regimes, indicating a cyclical pattern where economic growth affects environmental quality with varying severity over time. Furthermore, we demonstrate proper modeling techniques for the EKC, highlighting the importance of identification and misspecification tests. Our study identifies cyclical EKC patterns for both the UK and the USA, with the UK exhibiting two cycles and the USA exhibiting three, shaped by varying economic, social, and technological contexts. By revealing the nuances of the economic growth-environmental degradation nexus for these early developer countries, our study provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to devise evidence-based and environmentally sustainable growth policies within the framework of global environmental governance. These findings underscore the importance of considering historical context and structural changes when analyzing the EKC, providing valuable insights for policymakers aiming to design adaptive and sustainable economic growth strategies.
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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 2
    Citation - Scopus: 2
    Re-Examining the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis Under Temporary Gradual Breaks and Nonlinear Convergence
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2023) Hasanov, Mubariz; Omay, Tolga; Abioglu, Vasif
    This paper investigates the real interest parity hypothesis by testing stationarity of real interest rate differentials for 52 countries with respect to the USA. Taking account of the fact that both asymmetric adjustment and gradual temporary breaks may better characterize the dynamics of real interest rate differentials, we propose a new test that allows for two temporary shifts together with asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium. We employ the newly proposed test procedure along with the conventional ADF test as well as nonlinear KSS and OSH tests to examine stationarity of real interest rate differentials. Among the main results, we find that the newly proposed unit root test procedure highly outperforms the existing unit root tests in terms of rejecting the null hypothesis of unit root. Our results suggest that real interest rate differentials can be characterized by a stationary process with asymmetric adjustment around gradual and temporary shifts of mean.
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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 1
    Citation - Scopus: 1
    A Unit Root Test With Markov Switching Deterministic Components: A Special Emphasis on Nonlinear Optimization Algorithms
    (Springer, 2023) Omay, Tolga; Corakci, Aysegul
    In this study, we investigate the performance of different optimization algorithms in estimating the Markov switching (MS) deterministic components of the traditional ADF test. For this purpose, we consider Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb, and Shanno (BFGS), Berndt, Hall, Hall, Hausman (BHHH), Simplex, Genetic, and Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms. The simulation studies show that the Simplex method has significant advantages over the other commonly used hill-climbing methods and EM. It gives unbiased estimates of the MS deterministic components of the ADF unit root test and delivers good size and power properties. When Hamilton's (Econometrica 57:357-384, 1989) MS model is re-evaluated in conjunction with the alternative algorithms, we furthermore show that Simplex converges to the global optima in stationary MS models with remarkably high precision and even when convergence criterion is raised, or initial values are altered. These advantages of the Simplex routine in MS models allow us to contribute to the current literature. First, we produce the exact critical values of the generalized ADF unit root test with MS breaks in trends. Second, we derive the asymptotic distribution of this test and provide its invariance feature.
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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 19
    Citation - Scopus: 12
    Using Double Frequency in Fourier Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test
    (Springer, 2022) Cai, Yifei; Omay, Tolga
    We propose a double frequency fourier Dickey-Fuller (DF) unit root test. The asymptotic theory of the newly proposed test is first presented in this study. We conduct a series of simulations which suggest the proposed test statistic has correct size performance and gains more power when breaks are located at the beginning and end of the sample and in smooth type. In empirical analysis, we utilize the new test to examine the unit root hypothesis of relative commodity prices measured by Harvey et al. (Rev Econ Stat 92(2):367-377, 2010). The empirical results show that more relative commodity prices are stationary around a deterministic trend generated from double frequency Fourier function.
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    Article
    A Flexible Methodological Approach for Deriving Asymptotic Distributions in Nonlinear Unit Root Tests
    (Springer, 2026) Omay, Tolga
    This paper examines the challenges associated with deriving asymptotic distributions for nonlinear unit root tests. Although the prevalence of non-linear models has increased in recent years, such complex functions make deriving analytical solutions for ergodicity conditions and asymptotic distributions more challenging. The common practice of approximating nonlinear unit root tests with linear functions results in a significant loss of information. This study proposes a novel approach that utilizes the augmented Fourier transformation of the Arctan function to overcome these limitations. The fast convergence properties of the Arctan function within the Fourier framework allow for the derivation of asymptotic distributions for nonlinear unit root tests. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by obtaining previously elusive asymptotic distributions for the (existing nonlinear unit root tests) Leybourne et al., in Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(1), 83-97 (1998) test and achieving improved approximations for the Kapetanios et al., in Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359-379 (2003) test. Furthermore, we develop a new unrestricted ESTAR unit root test and demonstrate how previously unattainable asymptotic distributions can be readily derived for this novel test. An empirical application to real exchange rates, incorporating this new test alongside the existing KSS and Kılıç inft tests, reveals that our unrestricted version captures the data generating process more effectively than its restricted counterparts and demonstrates the superior performance of high-power tests that would otherwise be analytically intractable. Therefore, this approach offers a more accurate and robust way to understand the behavior of non-linear unit root tests.