Saygılı, Hülya

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Now showing 1 - 4 of 4

Citation - Scopus: 1
Production Fragmentation and Transport Mode Choice in Eu-28 Exports
(Routledge, 2024) Türkcan,K.; Saygılı,H.
This study uses detailed data on exports from the European Union (EU-28) to non-EU countries to investigate the impact of global production fragmentation on the choice of transportation modes. The article finds a positive relationship between production fragmentation and air transportation. The study also finds that air transportation is more likely to be chosen for high-value products. Additionally, the positive effect of production fragmentation on the likelihood of using air transportation is more pronounced when goods are exported to medium-range markets, upper-middle-income countries, countries with better air transportation infrastructure, and time-sensitive products. © 2024 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
Oil Price Pass-Through on Sector-Level Prices: Evidence From Turkey
(2023) Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih; Saygılı, Hülya
As energy dependency is one of the main drivers of rising global inflation, understanding the sectoral outlook for the effects of oil prices on inflation is crucial. This paper investigates oil price pass-through to consumer prices in Turkey utilizing a Phillips Curve estimation approach. Extending the results in the literature, we estimate Brent crude petroleum price pass-through coefficients for the 2-digit sectoral components of the consumer price index. Then, we compare the sector-level pass-through rates to the ones obtained from the headline and core inflation. We also apply a recursive estimation modeling to track pass-through behavior over time for each inflation series. The paper has several conclusions. First, the long-run oil price pass-through to headline inflation is around 7%. Second, pass-through to the core and sectoral inflation rates exhibit a significant amount of variation from headline inflation. Results with core inflation rates depend on whether energy prices are included or excluded from the consumer basket. Third, the sectoral pass-through rate depends on the weight of the energy-related items in that sector. Our findings suggest that the transport sector has the highest degree of pass-through. Fourth, the rate of pass-through to all prices increases following the hikes in inflation rates in September 2018 and October 2021.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
How Do Real and Monetary Integrations Affect Inflation Dynamics?
(Elsevier, 2023) Saygili, Hulya
This paper examines the significance of real and monetary integrations for the inflationary dynamics of an emerging country, Turkey. The analysis accounts for 2-digit items of CPI inflation, which can be broadly categorized as tradable versus non-tradable and goods versus services. We find that a fall in the inflation gap between partner countries is mainly related to real integration whereas the co-movement of inflation is prominently driven by monetary policy co-movements. The product-type analysis shows that inflation gap in tradable items between trade partners shrinks and becomes more correlated with the (de)convergence and co-movement of real integration.
Tradable and Non-Tradable Inflation in Turkey: Asymmetric Responses To Global Factors
(Physica-verlag Gmbh & Co, 2023) Saygili, Huelya; Turkvatan, Aysun
We contribute to the debate on the linkage between inflation regimes and globalization in several respects. First, we analyze consumer goods and services classified with respect to their tradability and content of intermediate imports. Second, we use 4-digit commodity-based price index data and the official weights of items in the consumer basket in computations. Third, we explore which states of the reference indicators are more related to low, normal or high regimes of inflation. Regimes are determined using Markov regime-switching models. Probability score analysis compares the best matching of different regimes of inflation and reference indicators. Fourth, since we use commodity-based data we perform the analysis for an emerging country, Turkey, which has not only high trade openness and high global integration rate but also implements inflation targeting regime. Findings suggest that relevance of the reference indicators for predicting inflation depends on: the share of tradable items in the consumer basket, imported intermediate content of items in the consumer basket, the regime of inflation and invoicing currency.

Journal	Count
Applied Economics	1
Business and Economics Research Journal	1
Empirical Economics	1
International Economics	1
International Trade Journal	1

Saygılı, Hülya

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