Akbal, Gülserim Özcan

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Citation - WoS: 1
The Amplification of the New Keynesian Models and Robust Optimal Monetary Policy
(Amer inst Mathematical Sciences-aims, 2020) Ozcan, Gulserim
This paper analyzes whether and how model uncertainty affects the amplification mechanism of the New Keynesian models in a simple min-max framework where the central bank plays a zero-sum game versus a hypothetical, evil agent. A first finding on a benchmark model with staggered price setting is that a robust optimal commitment policy necessitates more aggressive policy under a demand shock. Further, bringing additional persistence into the model deteriorates the effectiveness of monetary policy. Hence, allowing for either habit formation or partial indexation of prices to lagged inflation rate requires a stronger response for the policy to a demand shock. Together with the specification doubts, in order to reassure the private sector and signal that it will stabilize the fluctuations in the output gap, the policymaker reacts more aggressively as persistence rises. Although inflation persistence does not change the impact of model uncertainty, habit formation in consumption eliminates even reverses the impact of uncertainty on the policy reaction to a supply shock. In all cases, policymaker attributes less importance to nominal interest rate inertia with concerns about model uncertainty.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Model Uncertainty and Financial Frictions: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy
(World Scientific, 2024) Kantur,Z.; Özcan,G.
The last decades proved that policymaking without considering uncertainty is impracticable. In an environment of uncertainty, policymakers have doubts about the policy models they routinely use. This paper focuses specifically on the situation where uncertainty on the financial side of the economy leads to misspecification in the policy model. We describe a coherent strategy for policymakers who are averse to model misspecification and analyze optimal policy design in the face of Knightian uncertainty. To do so, we augment a financial dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with model misspecification in a simple minimax framework where the central bank plays a zero-sum game versus a hypothetical evil agent. The policy is tailored to insure against the worstcase outcomes. We show that model ambiguity on the financial side requires a passive monetary policy stance. However, if the uncertainty originates from the supply side of the economy, an aggressive response of interest rate is required. We also show the impact of an additional macroprudential tool on the dynamics of the economy. © 2024 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Journal	Count
Business and Economics Research Journal	1
Central Bank Review	1
Economic Analysis and Policy	1
Economic Change and Restructuring	1
Economics Letters	1

Akbal, Gülserim Özcan

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