Browsing by Author "Camalan, Ozge"

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Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 1
Comparison of the Performance of Structural Break Tests in Stationary and Nonstationary Series: a New Bootstrap Algorithm
(Springer, 2024) Camalan, Ozge; Hasdemir, Esra; Omay, Tolga; Kucuker, Mustafa Can
Structural breaks are considered as permanent changes in the series mainly because of shocks, policy changes, and global crises. Hence, making estimations by ignoring the presence of structural breaks may cause the biased parameter value. In this context, it is vital to identify the presence of the structural breaks and the break dates in the series to prevent misleading results. Accordingly, the first aim of this study is to compare the performance of unit root with structural break tests allowing a single break and multiple structural breaks. For this purpose, firstly, a Monte Carlo simulation study has been conducted through using a generated homoscedastic and stationary series in different sample sizes to evaluate the performances of these tests. As a result of the simulation study, Zivot and Andrews (J Bus Econ Stat 20(1):25-44, 1992) are the best-performing tests in capturing a single break. The most powerful tests for the multiple break setting are those developed by Kapetanios (J Time Ser Anal 26(1):123-133, 2005) and Perron (Palgrave Handb Econom 1:278-352, 2006). A new Bootstrap algorithm has been proposed along with the study's primary aim. This newly proposed Bootstrap algorithm calculates the optimal number of statistically significant structural breaks under more general assumptions. Therefore, it guarantees finding an accurate number of optimal breaks in real-world data. In the empirical part, structural breaks in the real interest rate data of the US and Australia resulting from policy changes have been examined. The results concluded that the bootstrap sequential break test is the best-performing approach due to the general assumption made to cover real-world data.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 5
The Impact of Increases in Housing Prices on Income Inequality: a Perspective on Sustainable Urban Development
(Mdpi, 2025) Unalan, Gokhan; Camalan, Ozge; Yilmaz, Hakki Hakan
This study examines the impact of housing price increases on income inequality using the dynamic system GMM for OECD countries (2010-2021). We test the hypothesis that housing price appreciation affects income distribution differently based on economic development levels and homeownership patterns. The analysis is conducted both for the entire sample and by dividing countries into two groups based on per capita income, Group 1 (16 countries) with below-median per capita GDP and Group 2 (17 countries) with above-median per capita GDP, to account to account for structural differences in housing markets, financial systems, and wealth accumulation mechanisms. The findings show that rising housing prices help reduce income inequality, especially in countries that are relatively low-income and where more low-income households own their homes. Specifically, our estimates indicate that a one-point increase in the housing price index leads to a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 0.21 percentage point reduction in the Gini change rate in lower-income countries. However, in higher-income countries, the effect of housing prices on inequality is statistically insignificant, suggesting that the relationship between housing markets and income inequality varies across different economic contexts. This insignificance likely stems from countervailing forces: while housing appreciation increases wealth for homeowners, higher housing costs may disproportionately burden lower-income households through rental markets in these economies. The findings highlight the importance of country-specific housing programs that consider homeownership patterns and financial market access in tackling inequality, along with comprehensive public social policies. Our study has implications for policymakers seeking to address inequality through housing market interventions, particularly during the post-2008 recovery period and into the early pandemic phase.