Browsing by Author "Bilgin, Gozde"
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Article Citation Count: 0Exploring the Critical Risk Factors of Public-Private Partnership City Hospital Projects in Turkey(Mdpi, 2024) Akçay, Emre Caner; Birgonul, Zeynep; Bilgin, Gozde; Akcay, Emre Caner; Civil EngineeringGovernments face challenges in delivering essential public services due to their limited funds. This has led to an increasing reliance on the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model, an alternative financing model involving a long-term collaboration between the private and public sectors to provide public services. Turkey, as a developing country facing financial limitations, has embraced the PPP model to address urgent public needs. Over the past decade, the Turkish Government has extensively utilized the PPP model, particularly in executing city hospital projects. However, investors have faced challenges in project execution due to various risk factors. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to explore the critical risk factors associated with PPP city hospital projects in Turkey. In this context, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify potential risks related to PPP city hospital projects. A questionnaire survey was implemented to assess the probability of occurrence and the severity of the impact of these risk factors. The collected data underwent analysis to determine the priority of these risk factors. The findings revealed that the top five most critical risk factors in PPP city hospital projects in Turkey are "foreign exchange rate fluctuations", "inflation rate volatility", "high finance costs", "fiscal issues", and "economic crises". Conversely, "unavailability of equipment" was identified as the least significant risk factor. The insights gained from this research can offer valuable guidance for prospective investors interested in participating in PPP city hospital projects in Turkey and other developing countries with similar conditions.Article Citation Count: 1Real options valuation of photovoltaic investments: A case from Turkey(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2024) Akçay, Emre Caner; Bilgin, Gozde; Akcay, Emre Caner; Dikmen, Irem; Birgonul, M. Talat; Civil EngineeringInvestments in renewable energy resources have become inevitable due to increasing energy demand and energy prices, diminishing non-renewable energy resources, and the outgrowth of carbon footprints. Photovoltaic (PV) systems offer high solar energy potential in sustainable energy production whereas their high initial costs necessitate critical strategic valuation of investments. Valuation with conventional methods has been challenging due to existence of uncertainties such as fluctuating PV panel prices, changing meteorological conditions with certain effects on power generation, and governmental policies on energy market regulations. This study aims to propose a real options approach to valuation of residential rooftop PV system investments considering these uncertainties and demonstrate benefits of this approach with an application on the residential PV investment decisions in Turkey. The proposed method, Real Options Valuation (ROV) with Least-Squares Monte Carlo Simulation (LSMC) considers the deferral option of the investor by utilizing stochastic simulations, the discounted cash flow method, linear regression, and backward dynamic programming and thus evaluates the effects of uncertainties on financial attractiveness of residential PV investments. The case study findings proved that ROV with LSMC having a 7-years deferral option supported the investment decision with realizable cost-effective options while "NPV method" resulted in an infeasible investment. Scenario analysis was also conducted to explore policy options that can be used to promote solar energy investments in Turkey. This study has a potential to have practical contributions for investors as well as implications for policy-makers.