Makroekonomik istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki rolü: Kolombiya örneği, 1950-2009
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Date
2012
Authors
İsmihan, Mustafa
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Abstract
Bu tezin temel amacı makroekonomik istikrarsızlığın Kolombiya'nın ekonomik büyümesi üzerindeki etkisini 1950-2009 yılları arasında üretim fonksiyonu yaklaşımıyla araştırmaktır. Ek olarak, dışa açıklık ve sermaye birikiminin (hem fiziki hem de beşeri) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki rolü analiz edilmiştir. Bunun için bu tez birim kökler, eşbütünleşim analizleri ve hata düzeltme modelleri gibi modern zaman serisi tekniklerini kullanmıştır.Tasviri ve ampirik sonuçlar, tekrar eden makroekonomik istikrarsızlık süreçlerinin, 1950-2009 dönemi boyunca, Kolombiya ekonomisinin büyüme potansiyelini ciddi ve olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, çıktıdaki büyümenin, uzun vadede, fiziki ve beşeri sermaye birikiminden olumlu ancak dışa açıklıktan olumsuz etkilendiğini de göstermektedir. Ayrıca, uzun vadede, çıktının kendisini sermaye birikimindeki değişime ve makroekonomik istikrarsızlığa daha çabuk uyarladığı bulunmuştur.
The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the role of macroeconomic instability on economic growth in Colombia, by utilizing a production function approach, over the 1950-2009 period. Additionally, the role of openness and capital formation (both physical and human) on economic growth are investigated. In doing so, this thesis has used modern time series techniques, such as unit roots, cointegration analysis and error correction models.Both the descriptive and econometric evidence show that the recurrent macroeconomic instability episodes seriously and negatively affected the growth potential of the Colombian economy during the 1950-2009 period. Empirical results also suggest that the growth in output is positively affected from physical and human capital formation but negatively affected from openness over the long term. Additionally, it is also found that in the long term, the output can adapt itself faster to the changes in macroeconomic instability and capital stock.
The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the role of macroeconomic instability on economic growth in Colombia, by utilizing a production function approach, over the 1950-2009 period. Additionally, the role of openness and capital formation (both physical and human) on economic growth are investigated. In doing so, this thesis has used modern time series techniques, such as unit roots, cointegration analysis and error correction models.Both the descriptive and econometric evidence show that the recurrent macroeconomic instability episodes seriously and negatively affected the growth potential of the Colombian economy during the 1950-2009 period. Empirical results also suggest that the growth in output is positively affected from physical and human capital formation but negatively affected from openness over the long term. Additionally, it is also found that in the long term, the output can adapt itself faster to the changes in macroeconomic instability and capital stock.
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Keywords
Ekonometri, Ekonomi, Beşeri sermaye, Ekonomik büyüme, Econometrics, Ekonomik istikrar, Economics, Eşbütünleşme, Human capital, Economic growth, Makroekonomi, Economic stability, Cointegration, Makroekonomik büyüklükler, Macroeconomy, Makroekonomik etki, Macroeconomic indicators, Macroeconomic effects, İstikrarsızlık, Instability
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117