TR-Dizin

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14411/21

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Browsing TR-Dizin by browse.metadata.publisher "Central Bank Republic Turkey"

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    Article
    Citation - WoS: 11
    Citation - Scopus: 14
    Card Spending Dynamics in Turkey During the Covid-19 Pandemic
    (Central Bank Republic Turkey, 2021) Kantur, Zeynep; Özcan, Gülserim
    This paper provides an extensive analysis of card spending during the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey by using weekly aggregated and sectoral credit and debit card spending data from March 2014 to December 2020. At an aggregated level, we show that aggregate demand decreases significantly at the early stages of COVID-19 and seems to reinstate its pre-COVID trend. However, when we include the pre-existing conditions of Turkey, the 2018 currency crisis, we observe that the recovery in demand is not that strong. To highlight the underlying reasons for structural change in aggregate demand, we estimate the model with stringency index and unemployment-related search index. The estimated model indicates that containment measures and restrictions and fear of job/income loss mainly explain the overall impact of COVID-19 on aggregate demand. We also examined sectoral data to understand aggregate demand dynamics better. Only stable and delayable sector groups have reached a trend above their pre-pandemic trajectories. However, the social and work-related sectors are far from their respective pre-pandemic trend.
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    Tests of Rationality in the Turkish Foreign Exchange Market
    (Central Bank Republic Turkey, 2014) Topbas, Neslihan; International Trade and Logistics
    The rationality of expectations has been tested in many foreign exchange markets using survey data. This study is aimed at gaining empirical insights about the expectations of market participants in the Turkish foreign exchange market. Using survey data provided by Central Bank of Turkey on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, it is determined that the mean of expectations of market participants for one year and one month ahead were higher than the mean of actual depreciation. The analysis resulted in rejection of the popular test for forward exchange rate unbiasedness in predicting the future spot exchange rate. Another test of rationality has also been checked and the result has been rejection as well, which can be interpreted that the forward premium contains additional information for exchange rate forecasts.