Browsing by Author "Ceylan, Nildağ Başak"

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Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 3
The Effects of Japanese Economic Performance on Indonesia
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2006) Berument, Hakan; Ceylan, Nildag Basak; Vural, Bengisu; Tourism Management
This paper assesses how Japanese economic performance affects the Indonesian economy for the 1988 to 2004 period. The empirical evidence provided here suggests that Japanese growth appreciates the local currency in real terms, decreases the inflation and increases growth. As a side issue, we also documented that real exchange rate depreciation accelerates inflation and decreases growth in Indonesia.
G-7 Ülkelerinin Borsalarının İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası Üzerindeki Etkileri
(2006) Ceylan, Nildağ Başak; Tourism Management
Bu çalışmada, DAX (Almanya), CAC 40 (Fransa), FTSE (İngiltere), S&P TSX Composite (Kanada), NIKKEI 225 (Japonya), S&P500 (Amerika), DOW JONES (Amerika), NASDAQ (Amerika) ve MIBTEL (İtalya)’den oluşan G-7 ülkeleri borsa endekslerinin, İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası (İMKB-100) üzerindeki etkileri, blok üçlemsel VAR modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, NIKKEI 225 haricindeki diğer tüm endekslerin, İMKB-100 endeksi üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki olarak önemli etkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Analizlerin sonucunda, Türkiye’nin krizsiz gecen 01.01.1995-31.10.2000 dönemi için diğer borsalardan etkileşiminin azaldığı, ancak 11 Eylül saldırıları sonrası globalleşmenin arttığı dönemde ise borsa endekslerinin İMKB-100 üzerindeki etkilerinin daha da arttığı görülmüştür.
Citation - WoS: 136
Citation - Scopus: 179
The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected Mena Countries
(int Assoc Energy Economics, 2010) Berument, M. Hakan; Ceylan, Nildag Basak; Dogan, Nukhet; Tourism Management; Tourism Management
This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the output growth of selected MENA countries that are considered either net exporters or net importers of this commodity, but are too small to affect oil prices. That an individual country's economic performance does not affect world oil prices is imposed on the Vector Autoregressive setting as an identifying restriction. The estimates suggest that oil price increases have a statistically significant and positive effect on the outputs of Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. However, oil price shocks do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on the outputs of Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. When we further decompose positive oil shocks such as oil demand and oil supply for the latter set of countries, oil supply shocks are associated with lower output growth but the effect of oil demand shocks on output remain positive.
Citation - WoS: 19
Citation - Scopus: 24
Increasing Accuracy of Two-Class Pattern Recognition With Enhanced Fuzzy Functions
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2009) Celikyilmaz, Asli; Tuerksen, I. Burhan; Aktas, Ramazan; Doganay, M. Mete; Ceylan, N. Basak; Tourism Management
In building an approximate fuzzy classifier system, significant effort is laid oil estimation and fine tuning of fuzzy sets. However, in such systems little thought is given to the way in which membership functions are combined within fuzzy rules. In this paper, a robust method, improved fuzzy classifier functions (IFCF) design is proposed for two-class pattern recognition problems. A supervised hybrid improved fuzzy Clustering for classification (IFC-C) algorithm is implemented for structure identification. IFC-C algorithm is based oil it dual optimization method, which yields simultaneous estimates of the parameters of (c-classification functions together with fuzzy c partitioning of dataset based oil a distance measure. The merit of novel IFCF is that the information oil natural grouping of data samples i.e., the membership values, are utilized as additional predictors of each fuzzy classifier function to improve accuracy of system model. Improved fuzzy classifier functions are approximated using statistical and soft computing approaches. A new semi-non-parametric inference mechanism is implemented for reasoning. The experimental results Of the new modeling approach indicate that the new IFCF is it promising method for two-class pattern recognition problems. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 25
Citation - Scopus: 27
Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates: Is the Fisher Relation Universal?
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2007) Berument, Hakan; Ceylan, Nildag Basak; Olgun, Hasan; Tourism Management
This paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis, which establishes a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation, for the G7 countries and 45 developing economies. For this purpose, we estimate a version of the GARCH specification of the hypothesis for all countries included in the sample. We also test the augmented Fisher relation by including the inflation uncertainty in the equation. The simple Fisher relation holds in all G7 countries but in only 23 developing countries. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and inflation uncertainty for six of the G7 and 18 of the developing countries and this relationship is negative for seven developing countries.
Citation - WoS: 8
A New Classifier Design With Fuzzy Functions
(Springer-verlag Berlin, 2007) Celikytlmaz, Ash; Tuerksen, I. Burhan; Aktas, Ramazan; Doganay, M. Mete; Ceylan, N. Basak; Tourism Management
This paper presents a new fuzzy classifier design, which constructs one classifier for each fuzzy partition of a given system. The new approach, namely Fuzzy Classifier Functions (FCF), is an adaptation of our generic design on Fuzzy Functions to classification problems. This approach couples any fuzzy clustering algorithm with any classification method, in a unique way. The presented model derives fuzzy functions (rules) from data to classify patterns into number of classes. Fuzzy c-means clustering is used to capture hidden fuzzy patterns and a linear or a non-linear classifier function is used to build one classifier model for each pattern identified. The performance of each classifier is enhanced by using corresponding membership values of the data vectors as additional input variables. FCF is proposed as an alternate representation and reasoning schema to fuzzy rule base classifiers. The proposed method is evaluated by the comparison of experiments with the standard classifier methods using cross validation on test patterns.
Citation - WoS: 25
Citation - Scopus: 28
Performance of Soccer on the Stock Market: Evidence From Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2006) Berument, Hakan; Ceylan, Nildag Basak; Gozpinar, Esin; Tourism Management
This paper assesses the effect of soccer success on stock market returns for three major Turkish teams (Besiktas, Fenerbahce and Galatasaray) after certain characteristics of the stock market are controlled for. The empirical evidence presented here suggests that Besikta's win against foreign rivals in the Winner's Cup increases stock market returns. The same effect is not present for the other two big teams (Fenerbahce and Galatasaray). The day of the week effect on the stock market and the relationship between risk and return are also presented. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Petrol arama ve üretim anlaşmalarının finansal yapısı ve yatırım kararlarının değerlendirilmesi
(2010) Özdemirli, Tuğba; Ceylan, Nildağ Başak; Tourism Management
Türkiye yüksek petrol ve doğal gaz tüketimine sahip olmakla beraber, iki enerji kaynağını da büyük oranla ithal etmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı; dünyada ve Türkiye'de petrol piyasasının analizi ve bu piyasada yapılan bir yatırım projesinin finansal olarak değerlendirilmesidir.Çalışmada petrol piyasasının esasları ve işleyişi incelenerek, bir petrol yatırım projesinin fizibilite etüdü yapılmıştır. Uygulamada yaygın olarak kullanılan net bugünkü değer, iç karlılık oranı gibi ticari analiz; duyarlılık ve başabaş noktası gibi risk analizi yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Uygulamanın ikinci bölümünde ise, aynı yatırım üzerinden Türkiye analizi yapılarak, mevcut mevzuat ve yeni petrol kanun tasarısı karşılaştırılarak avantaj ve dezavantajları irdelenmiştir.Çalışmada, petrol ve doğal gaz üretiminin arttırılması için arama faaliyetlerine hız verilmesi, enerji tüketiminde yerli kaynakların payının artırılması, bu amaçla, yatırımcıyı yeterince teşvik etmeyen mevzuatımızın yerine sunulan yeni petrol kanun tasarısının uygulamadaki işlerliği ve enerji üzerinden alınan vergilerin yatırımcıyı teşvik edecek şekilde düzenlenmesi gereği vurgulanmaktadır.Anahtar Sözcükler1.Petrol Piyasası2.Uluslararası Petrol Anlaşmaları3.Yatırım Kararları4.Petrol Kanunu5.Petrol Kanun Tasarısı6.Proje Analizi
Citation - WoS: 1
Predicting Financial Failure of the Turkish Banks
(World Scientific Publ Co Pte Ltd, 2006) Doganay, M. Mete; Ceylan, Nildag Basak; Aktas, Ramazan; Tourism Management
Banks are the most important financial institutions in Turkey because other financial institutions are not developed efficiently yet. Turkish banks experienced financial difficulties and a substantial amount of banks failed in the past. This event urged the government to initiate measures to prevent banks from getting into financial difficulties. As a result of these measures, Turkish banking system currently seems to be very attractive for the foreign investors willing to invest in this sector. One of the main concerns of the foreign investors is a possibility of a new banking crisis although it is very remote at this time. The purpose of this study is to develop early warning systems predicting the financial failure at least three years ahead of financial date. A number of multivariate statistical models such as multiple regression, discriminant analysis, logit, probit are used. We found that the most appropriate model is logit. The significant variables obtained from the models explain very well the causes of the bank failures. Our models can be used to assist interested parties to predict the probability of financial failure of Turkish banks.
Citation - WoS: 16
Citation - Scopus: 18
Soccer, Stock Returns and Fanaticism: Evidence From Turkey
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2009) Berument, M. Hakan; Ceylan, Nildağ Başak; Ceylan, Nildag Basak; Ogut-Eker, Gulin; Ceylan, Nildağ Başak; Tourism Management; Tourism Management
This paper assesses the effect of three major soccer teams' wins on the returns of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). We argue that the effect of soccer wins on ISE returns increases with the fanaticism of the teams' supporters. (C) 2009 Western Social Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Tüketicinin Sosyal İlişki Ağının Promosyonlu Ürünleri Satın Alma Kararına Etkileri: Gima ve Yimpaş Gıda Reyonu Örneği
(2002) Ceylan, Nildağ Başak; Tourism Management
Günümüzde gıda işletmeleri tüketiciye yönelik satış geliştirme faaliyetlerine ağırlık vermektedirler. Bunu yaparken de daha ziyade ekonomik ve psikolojik faktörleri gözönünde bulundurmaktadırlar. Ancak sosyal bir varlık olan birey bu ürünlerden hangisini satın alacağına karar verirken içinde yer aldığı sosyal ilişki ağını oluşturan aile, akraba, arkadaş, v.b.lerden de etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışmada satın alma kararında, sosyal ilişkiler ağının, kişinin promosyonlu ürünleri satın alma kararına olan etkisini ölçmek amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Gima ve Yimpaş gıda reyonunda 384 tüketiciye anket uygulanmıştır. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre, tüketicinin promosyonlu ürünleri satın alma kararında sosyal ilişkiler ağını oluşturan anne, baba, kardeş, yakın arkadaş, iş arkadaşı, akraba, reyon görevlilerinden etkilendiği anlaşılmıştır. Ayrıca yaş, eğitim, cinsiyet, hane geliri, medeni durum, meslek faktörlerinin promosyonlu ürünleri satın alma kararında etkili olup olmadıkları incelenmiş ve sonuçta meslek dışındaki tüm faktörlerin tüketicinin satın alma kararını etkilediği ortaya çıkmıştır.