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Article Tests of Rationality in the Turkish Foreign Exchange Market(Central Bank Republic Turkey, 2014) Topbas, Neslihan; International Trade and LogisticsThe rationality of expectations has been tested in many foreign exchange markets using survey data. This study is aimed at gaining empirical insights about the expectations of market participants in the Turkish foreign exchange market. Using survey data provided by Central Bank of Turkey on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the US dollar, it is determined that the mean of expectations of market participants for one year and one month ahead were higher than the mean of actual depreciation. The analysis resulted in rejection of the popular test for forward exchange rate unbiasedness in predicting the future spot exchange rate. Another test of rationality has also been checked and the result has been rejection as well, which can be interpreted that the forward premium contains additional information for exchange rate forecasts.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Shaken, Stirred and Indebted: Firm-Level Effects of Earthquakes(Elsevier Science inc, 2024) Arin, K. Peren; Arnau, Josep Marti; Boduroglu, Elif; Celik, Esref UgurUsing firm-level data from Turkiye, we investigate the effects of earthquakes on firms' balance sheets. We find that earthquakes increase firms' liabilities but have a smaller effect on firms' assets, both in magnitude and significance. Using surveys sent to the finance and/or accounting managers of the largest 100 firms in Turkiye we identify common themes in their perceptions. Our findings reveal a consensus among respondents attributing the increased liabilities to exchange rate depreciation and lower business activity following a disaster. Conversely, higher availability of external credit is associated with a decrease in liabilities. Our analysis also indicates that finance managers with higher educational attainment may be underestimating the effects of earthquakes.
