Periodicity in Precipitation and Temperature for Monthly Data of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, we model and forecast monthly average temperature and monthly average precipitation of Turkey by employing periodogram-based time series methodology. We compare autoregressive integrated moving average methodology and harmonic regression. We show that harmonic regression performs better than the classical methodology in both time series. Also, we find that the monthly average temperature and monthly average precipitation have two different periodic structures of 6 months and 12 months which coincide with the seasonal pattern of the time series.