A Long-Run Convergence Analysis of Aerosol Precursors, Reactive Gases, and Aerosols in the Brics and Indonesia: Is a Global Emissions Abatement Agenda Supported?

Abstract

This article examines the hypothesis of deterministic emissions convergence for a panel of the BRICS and Indonesia to advanced countries' emissions levels as well as to Sweden (which is a country that has clearly gone through decoupling) using a novel dataset with ten series of annual estimates of anthropogenic emissions comprising aerosols, aerosol precursor and reactive compounds, and carbon dioxide from 1820 to 2018. For that purpose, we employ four novel panel unit root tests allowing for several forms of time-dependent and state-dependent nonlinearity. The evidence supports deterministic convergence following a linear process for carbon dioxide, whereas the adjustment is asymmetric and nonlinear for carbon monoxide. Methane and nitrogen oxides exhibit logistic smooth transition converging dynamics. In contrast, black carbon, ammonia, nitrous oxide, non-methane volatile organic compounds, organic carbon, and sulfur dioxide emissions diverge. These results have implications for the abatement of greenhouse gases emissions at the global level, given the high share of emissions of the BRICS.