Prioritization of risk events in PPP wind power projects using integrated FMEA and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

The popularity of public private partnership (PPP) projects has grown all over the world, especially indeveloping countries. The success of PPP projects heavily depends on how effectively risk assessments areperformed. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) enables risk assessment by considering the impact,the probability, and the detection rate of risk events. However, it is very difficult to predict a single value forthese variables. The objective of this research is to integrate FMEA and Monte Carlo simulation, and to usethis model to perform risk assessment and prioritization of risks in PPP projects. The proposed model wasapplied to a real wind power generation investment located in the Aegean region of Turkey. The top threeimportant risk events are “unfavorable wind speed”, “fluctuation in exchange rates”, and “interest ratevolatility”. The model perfumed to the satisfaction of experts. The primary contributions of this researchinclude (1) a method that allows the identification of the risk events in PPP projects; (2) a model that performsrisk assessment and prioritization of risk events in PPP projects; (3) an integrated FMEA and Monte Carlosimulation model that performs stochastic risk assessment in PPP projects. Both public agencies and privateconsortia should benefit from the proposed model.