Forecasting COVID-19 Transmission: Insights From the Logistic Smooth Transition Model

Abstract

This study aims to explain the transmission mechanism of the COVID-19 pandemic through short-term forecasts based on the logistic smooth transition (LST) model. The model simulation was applied to data from the first seven waves in Japan, as well as the first waves of the other G7 countries. The model provided forecasts with significant precision, with an average of 59 days ahead of the actual number of COVID-19 cases. The model effectively estimated transition speed and identified critical thresholds for each pandemic wave, facilitating early predictions of peak timings. This framework not only enhances our understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics but also offers a replicable method for managing future pandemics.