Ekonomik Performans Endeksleri ve Uluslararası Ticaret Arasındaki İlişki: Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Abstract

Misery indices are indices that indicates the economic performance of the countries. In general, misery indexes are the criteria by which the potential misery or unhappiness of individuals is determined because high unemployment makes it difficult to find a job and high inflation hinders purchasing power. In terms of market actors, it is important to establish the relationship between misery index values and market mechanism. There are studies specific to the misery index in the literature however they do not focus on the variables such as the exchange rate, foreign trade balance, exports and imports. So this gap in the literature is tried to be filled. Therefore, within the framework of the study, we try to reveal whether the misery index interacts with international trade or foreign trade indicators through an empirical model. The indexes subject to the study are Okun Misery Index and Barro Misery Index. The study covers Turkey and the BRICS countries India, Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa. Analyzes were made on the Okun and Barro Index values specific to the countries. For Turkey, an econometric model was established by calculating the Barro Misery Index, exchange rate and foreign trade balance values between that belong to 2007Q3-2020Q3. According to the empirical findings, the established econometric model and variables were statistically significant. The coefficient results obtained indicate that there is a negative relationship between the Barro Misery Index and the foreign trade balance and there is a positive relationship with the exchange rates. According to the Granger causality test, it was seen that, the exchange rate affects the foreign trade balance and the Barro Misery Index, and vice-versa, the Barro Misery Index affects the foreign trade balance.