Türkiye'de toplam elektrik talebinin fiyat ve gelir esneklikleri, 1970-2008
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Date
2010
Authors
İsmihan, Mustafa
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Abstract
Bu tez çalışmasında, Türkiye'de toplam elektrik tüketiminin gelir ve fiyat esneklikleri, 1970-2008 dönemi için, geliştirilen ekonometrik model çerçevesinde tahmin edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda, birim kök testleri ve eşbütünleşme tekniği gibi modern zaman serisi analizleri kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, bu çalışmada güncellenmiş ve tutarlı ortalama elektrik satış fiyatı ve gelir serileri oluşturulmuştur.Geliştirilen model çerçevesinde Türkiye'de toplam elektrik tüketiminin uzun dönem gelir esnekliği 1.29, kısa dönem gelir esnekliği ise 0.44 olarak tahmin edilmiştir. Aynı zamanda talebin elektrik fiyatından etkilenmediği tespit edilmiştir. Başka bir deyişle, talebin fiyat esnekliğinin sıfırdan farklı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
This study aimed to estimate the income and price elasticities of total electricity consumption for the 1970-2008 period in Turkey, by developing an econometric model. Accordingly, this study uses modern time series analyses, such as unit root tests and cointegration method. Furthermore, consistent and updated series of average electricity sale price and income series were developed.Based on empirical model, long term income elasticity of total electricity consumption in Turkey was estimated as 1.29, whereas, short term was estimated as 0.44. Additionally, it was found that price of electricity has no effect on demand. In other words, it could be concluded that price elasticity of demand is not statistically significantly different than zero.
This study aimed to estimate the income and price elasticities of total electricity consumption for the 1970-2008 period in Turkey, by developing an econometric model. Accordingly, this study uses modern time series analyses, such as unit root tests and cointegration method. Furthermore, consistent and updated series of average electricity sale price and income series were developed.Based on empirical model, long term income elasticity of total electricity consumption in Turkey was estimated as 1.29, whereas, short term was estimated as 0.44. Additionally, it was found that price of electricity has no effect on demand. In other words, it could be concluded that price elasticity of demand is not statistically significantly different than zero.
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Keywords
Ekonometri, Ekonomi, Enerji, Ekonomik modeller, Econometrics, Economics, Elektrik, Energy, Economic models, Elektrik tüketimi, Electricity, Fiyat, Electric consumption, Price, Gelirler, Incomes
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0
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76